From the mid-1950s to the mid-1990s, voters in at least 25 percent of congressional districts chose a House representative from one party and a presidential candidate from a different party.
Today, ticket-splitting has nearly vanished. Greater ideological sorting, more efficient information flows, political polarization, and, most importantly, gerrymandering to eliminate competitive districts all contributed to more people and districts voting straight tickets.
There are still a few lonely maverick districts, but just a few. After the 2020 elections, only 16 districts out of 435 split their representative and presidential selections. The representatives who beat the odds tend to be moderate and bipartisan, though not wholly independent.
We don’t know how many split-ticket districts there were in the 2024 election. Many congressional districts zigzag their way through a few different counties, so until the precinct results are thoroughly analyzed, it’s impossible to know the exact number, but preliminary results suggest it will be around 16 yet again.
North Carolina Republicans have dramatically gerrymandered the state—10 of the swing state’s 14 congressmen are set to be Republican. But there’s still one competitive district, North Carolina’s 1st. The district covers the northeast part of the state, which is 40 percent Black, with a lower-than-average income. It stretches from the beaches of the Outer Banks to the historically black campus of Elizabeth City State College to the busy streets of Rocky Mount.
Trump won it by approximately 3 to 4 percentage points. But Representative Don Davis, a freshman Democrat, won re-election anyway. Winning in a Trump-voting district is no small feat, and Davis’s success contains lessons for all Democrats as they think about rebuilding the party image.
When I spoke to him in his office on Capitol Hill, Davis wasn’t pessimistic about Democrats, though he goes to great lengths to distinguish himself from the national brand. He opposed a menthol cigarette ban considered by the Biden administration. He signed a symbolic, Republican-led messaging bill condemning the Biden administration and specifically Kamala Harris on immigration. On-message as you’d expect from a savvy politician, he advocates for being willing to work with Republicans, showing up in the district, listening to voters, and most importantly, “meet[ing] them where they are.”
This conversation has been edited for length and clarity.
MN: In the presidential vote, your district swung a fair bit to the right from 2020. Gates County swung eight points. Hertford, seven points. Perquimans, seven points. Warren, Chowan, seven points. Why did Trump win your district?
DD: There’s a lot of frustration out there. Those frustrations exist on all sides, and you’re talking about an area experiencing economic distress, health care disparities, and educational gaps. People are just craving anyone who’s going to fight for them.
I would also be very candid to say there are a lot of concerns about securing the border and the need for comprehensive immigration reform. We can secure the border, and it can be done in a humane way. We can do it, and we should do it.
At the same time, people in the district have a dire interest in our local economy. In this part of the state, so many young people are leaving looking for job opportunities. And what is so important is to show people that you’re fighting for them to be still able to live the American Dream in eastern North Carolina and keep it within reach.
For me, the question is not only why people came out for Trump, but the broader question is: How can we transform this region and other regions across America that are more rural and experience more challenges? People can become so frustrated that they’ll look for anything.
MN: Why do you think that even though Trump won the district, you still won re-election? What sets you apart from the national Democratic brand?
DD: This is home for me. We’re fighting for the home team. We had a coalition of Democrats, Republicans, and unaffiliated voters. Local issues came about. There were concerns about Seymour Johnson Air Force Base cutting a squadron. It became about the economy. We’re pushing to create more of a pipeline with the Newport News shipyard. China’s outpacing us with shipbuilding and submarine building. We have to do more in terms of production. They need more employees, and about 1,100 people in North Carolina will work across the state line.
Also, when I think about our leading industry in North Carolina, agriculture, we pushed back against the menthol ban. Why? I truly understand health challenges. But I’m not sure how it was rolled out would have benefited anyone. You’d have to go cold turkey overnight with this ban. I think more could be done, but the greater picture is that you’re talking about jobs. So, in the short period I’ve been in Congress, we’re fighting to hold on to the over 6,000 jobs tied to menthol and the potential cut at Seymour Johnson Air Force Base, which is another 520 jobs. And [laughs], you don’t build an economy by cutting all these jobs, right?
We need to continue to move in the opposite direction. I believe people saw me for who I am. This is my home. Many people know me. Over the course of serving in the 118th Congress, I made over 300 trips to the counties of this district, reaching out, engaging, dealing with, and resolving the problems my constituents talk about at the dinner table.
I served in the State Senate. I grew up going back and forth between Wayne and Green counties, so I’ve got a lot of rich relationships.
MN: If Democrats want to be more competitive in working-class areas, do you think it’s about moving to the right a little, culturally, or just about the kitchen table issues? How can Democrats regain the positive brand they used to have a little more firmly in working-class areas?
DD: This is what I see right now: a lot of frustrations on both sides, and I believe people are doubting or not always trusting the government. What they often see, from day to day, is members of Congress coming up here, throwing bombs at each other, seeing who’s going to burn the house down. To be candid, people are just sick and tired of it. That’s what they’re telling me, to the point that some are frustrated enough that they just decide not to vote.
Anyone serious about public service, about putting the people over politics: Everybody will have a different perspective—we gotta meet people where they are. Meet them where they are in their lives and real-world experiences, and let them see who we are authentically so that there’s trust. That’s what I’ve tried to do. And for me, that’s not driven by party registration. It’s not driven by ideology. It comes from a place of a genuine desire to serve people. You need to get deep down into communities and neighborhoods. It’s not about coming to knock on the door to ask for the vote on campaign time. It’s not about a telephone call that says, “Don’t forget to vote.” You need to make these connections in a way that people feel valued. I think that’s what makes a world of difference.
MN: You probably saw the big trans ads. I’m curious where you stand on that. Do you think trans girls, who are born male, should play in girls’ sports, as an example?
DD: I put it this way: I think those ads were really misrepresenting us. That was the path they chose. It was designed to be divisive. Everything I’ve always talked about has been about bringing people together, and these are issues that are designed to be wedge issues. But what you’re going to find with me is I’m trying to bring the people of eastern North Carolina together so that we can continue to deal with those issues being talked about at the typical dinner table.
MN: Another shift I want to discuss is black men, right? They shifted 12 points to the right [according to AP VoteCast]. Why’d that happen?
DD: This is about connecting with people where they are. I can give you an example. I was out knocking on doors and came across a truck driver—a young African American male. His concern is about the economy and ensuring he can provide for his family. We have to meet people where they are.
MN: The Republicans kept the house by a small margin. What do you think they’ll be able to put through? And what kind of issues are you looking forward to working with them on? And which issues do you want to stop them on?
DD: I’m going to work with them, especially on issues that I believe are important for the people of East North Carolina. It’s important to get to a good farm bill. Agriculture is big in our district. It’s also important to maintain our national security. The NDAA [National Defense Authorization Act] is sitting out there.
Most importantly, right now, our friends, brothers, and sisters out west have been devastated by these hurricanes. So, we need disaster assistance. We have to be able to move on that, and I am very optimistic that we could agree to help people going through some of the most difficult times in their lives.
MN: Tell me more about the decision to vote for the resolution condemning Kamala Harris for the border. What do you say to people who say that was a cynical move?
DD: I’ll put it this way. No one’s going to agree 100 percent on issues. And I was very clear on my support for the vice president for president, right? I endorsed her, went out, and did everything I could to encourage others across the East to support her in the election.
The election is over. And what I would say, as we prepare for the 119th Congress, is that I want to work for the people of East North Carolina. And I would love for us to find those items in which we agree, where there’s common ground, where we can do good work for the people of East North Carolina.
MN: What do you hope happens in terms of border policy? What are you trying to work towards?
DD: I would love to get something done. My record stands for itself. I’ve taken some of what I think are important votes. I think there’s legislation out there that we can draw upon. But at the end of the day, right now, this is about what we can realistically come to some sort of agreement on for the American people. Again, my record shows a willingness to try to get to some agreement, and that’s what I’m standing on.
MN: Do you think that Trump is dangerous to democracy? Do you think he’s a fascist? What do you think about that?
DD: I believe there’s a lot of frustration on both sides, and I think it is important to lead in a balanced way so that everyone knows we’re here to work for them. We may not agree all the time, but we’re here to work for the greater good of eastern North Carolina.
MN: Trump has proposed cutting taxes on Social Security, which would accelerate the exhaustion of the Social Security Trust Fund. What can we do, concretely, to ensure that when I get older, when you get older, we receive the same amount of money in Social Security that our grandparents got?
DD: When we talk about middle-class people in the first congressional district, so many young people are leaving. What happens? We have an aging and older population. So, this is a very important issue for the presence of eastern North Carolina.
I would go even a step further. We’ve not made any major expansions over the last 50 years. There are different proposals out there. Instead of forecasting what may come out of the 119th Congress, I’m going to make sure that we’re looking at different ideas in different ways to make sure that Social Security continues to be in place for our seniors and fou. Let’s see where President Trump would like to go in this conversation. With the Republicans in control of the White House, the House, and the Senate, that side is where the whole conversation will be in terms of what’s actually placed on the agenda.
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