The Middle East is undergoing a dramatic transformation right before our eyes, and it’s happening at an astonishing speed. The Assad regime in Syria has basically been toppled in a matter of days, with Sunni militias, some backed by Turkey, sweeping across the country. This marks the collapse of a state that has long been a key player in the Iranian Shia axis of power. The Iranian influence in the region, once a looming force, has now been crushed.
This remarkable shift is largely due to one crucial event that was over a year ago: Hamas launched its war against Israel without coordinating with Iran. This unprecedented move not only disrupted Iran’s multi-pronged strategy to destroy Israel, but it also gave Israel the opportunity to respond. Israel first basically eliminated Hamas, then turned its focus on Hezbollah, wiping out another key component of Iran’s military network in the region.
With Hezbollah gone, Israel essentially changed the balance of power in the region. Sunni militias, funded and trained most probably by Turkey and once constrained by Iranian-backed forces, saw an opening to bring down the Syrian regime. Without Iranian support and with Russia no longer in a position to intervene, the Sunnis have seized that opportunity. Syria, as a functioning state, is no more. The Middle East is witnessing a return to a natural state of Sunni dominance, with old Sykes-Picot borders now unraveling.
But the question remains: Will these Sunni militias now turn their attention to Iraq or the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan? Iraq is a Sunni-majority country now also under Iranian influence. The Hashemite monarchy of Jordan is a minority tribe ruling over a largely Sunni population, and also faces growing internal unrest.
If these militias succeed in dismantling Syria, could Iraq and/or Jordan be next? With the balance of power already shifted dramatically, anything is now possible. The old order, an unnatural creation of nation-states imposed by the Western powers after World War I, is coming apart.
On Israel’s northern border in Lebanon, the Sunni militias from Syria now pose a serious threat to Hezbollah fighters and a potential threat to Israel. The potential collapse of Jordan could create a new, chaotic reality of Sunni fighters right at Israel’s Eastern doorstep as well.
This is a time for Israel to be vigilant, not just in protecting its borders but in expanding them to better prepare for the unpredictable challenges ahead.
Now is also the time for Israel to consider strategic actions that could help mitigate the chaos. Allowing all Sunni Muslims in Gaza to leave and relocate to the Sunni-controlled non-state of Syria could be a way to deal with the humanitarian crisis while creating a new dynamic in the region.
The Middle East is changing. The old regional structures are crumbling, and Israel must adapt to this new reality to ensure its survival. The old borders and rules no longer apply.
