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When Javier Milei took office on December 10, 2023, the firebrand Argentine president inherited an economy in meltdown. Milei promised to take a "chainsaw" to the state.
Since then, he has presided over sweeping spending cuts, fired tens of thousands of public employees, shut down half the country's 18 ministries, and devalued the peso against the dollar by over 50%. He cut state spending by an estimated 31% in his first 10 months alone.
The measures caught the attention of Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, the men now charged with a similar task under President-elect Donald Trump.
Last month, Musk said Argentina had made "impressive progress,'" while Ramaswamy said that the US needed "Milei-style cuts on steroids."
A year into Milei's term in office, BI took a look at the figures.
When Milei took over in December 2023, Argentina's inflation stood at 25.5%, while economic activity had fallen 4.5% year over year.
Argentina's inflation rate dropped to 2.7% this October — the lowest level in three years, according to the predicting market website Kalshi.
Ignacio Labaqui, a senior analyst at Medley Global Advisors, a leading macro policy research service, called this a "success" for Milei.
He said that Milei "managed to bring inflation down faster than expected despite starting his term with a 100% increase in the exchange rate and hiking longtime frozen utilities' tariffs — two measures that have an inflationary impact."
However, Facundo Nejamkis, director of Opina Argentina, a political consultancy firm, told Reuters that Milei's cuts have ignited a "major" recession.
According to BBVA projections, Argentina's GDP contracted by 3.4% in the first half of 2024, and it is expected to decline by 4% for the full year.
The country's unemployment rate also rose to 7.6% in Q2, up from 6.2% in the same period last year, according to Argentina's statistics agency.
Maria Victoria Murillo, director of the Institute of Latin American Studies at Columbia University, told BI last month that the "deep" recession, while "very painful," has been accepted by Argentinians because inflation was "terrible" and people "do not want to go back."
Meanwhile, according to Argentina's statistics agency, the country's poverty rate rose to 52.9% in the first half of 2024, up from 41.7% in the second half of 2023.
This was the highest rate in 30 years, per a research team at the Observatory of the Argentine Social Debt, which keeps track of key economic indicators.
While acknowledging declining inflation, it said growing poverty was a result of Milei's "shock" economic plan and structural issues, including the devaluation of the peso.
Falling inflation "does not yet translate into a greater capacity for household consumption," it said.
There are, however, some signs of recovery.
In the first five months of 2024, Argentina's government achieved a primary fiscal surplus of 1.1% of GDP — its first in 12 years.
This is Milei's "most remarkable achievement," said Labaqui of Medley Global Advisors, who said the fiscal surplus, together with the exchange rate anchor, brought inflation down faster than expected.
BBVA Research, for its part, said that it expects Argentina's GDP to rebound strongly next year, from a 4% deficit in 2024 to 6% in 2025, driven by investments, exports, and private consumption.
Juan Cruz Díaz, managing director at Cefeidas Group, an international advisory firm, told BI that "one year later, it can be argued that the economic landscape has certainly improved, although there is still a long way to go."
He said that Argentina is still expected to end 2024 with an accumulated inflation of 120%, one of the highest in the world, but a sharp decline from 2023's 211%.
"In addition, Milei has promoted a regime to attract large foreign investments in certain sectors of the economy, with some initiatives already underway," he said.
Cruz Díaz added that one of the surprising aspects of the last year has been Milei's ability to "keep his public image relatively stable throughout the year, despite having implemented deep cuts in public spending, along with other measures generally considered unpopular and politically costly, such as the elimination of subsidies for energy and other essential services."
This is something that could be of particular interest to Musk and Ramaswamy, as they look at sweeping federal budget cuts in the US.
Labaqui, for his part, said keeping Argentina's current trajectory will depend on whether Milei's party performs "strongly" in next year's legislative elections.
"Inflation certainly is falling at a faster-than-anticipated pace," he said, "and there is an incipient economic rebound, but there is still a lot to do to bring the economy back on track."
