Many Syrians are celebrating their sudden freedom from tyrant Bashar al-Assad while Israeli troops are quickly occupying his military installations overlooking the Golan Heights, but the jubilation may be short-lived.
Barely 48 hours since the dominant opposition force Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) captured Damascus, Geir Pedersen, UN Special Envoy for Syria, warned, “Syria is now at a crossroads with great opportunities for us, but also with grave risks. And we need really to look at both.”
Referring to numerous reports of Israeli troop movements into the Golan Heights and bombardments of targets inside Syria, Mr. Pedersen insisted: “This needs to stop.”
“We know that, of course, HTS is now the dominant group in control of Damascus, but it’s important also to remember that they are not the only armed group in Damascus.”
Importantly, Syria remains extremely volatile outside Damascus. “The conflict in the northeast is not over; there has been clashes between the Syrian National Army, the opposition groups and the [Syrian Democratic Forces]. We are calling obviously for calm also in this area,” Pedersen said.
About Israeli incursions into Syria, he added that the message from the UN was that “what we are seeing is a violation of the disengagement agreement in 1974.” That agreement concluded the Yom Kippur War and established a 235-square-kilometer demilitarized buffer zone between Israel and Syria monitored by UN peacekeepers.
The extent of HTS leader Abu Mohammad al Jolani’s control over other factions inside Damascus and outside or near the buffer zone is still unclear, although his group led the opposition forces’ advance into Damascus via Aleppo, Hama and Homs.
Meanwhile, HTS is still seen as a terrorist group by the UN Security Council under its resolution 2254 adopted in December 2015. The resolution calls on all UN members “to prevent and suppress terrorist acts committed specifically by” the Al-Nusra Front, which is HTS’s predecessor.
Jolani also has a $10 million bounty on his head placed by the US but the terror listing might be changed.
“You have to look at the facts and to see what has happened during the last nine years. It is nine years since that resolution was adopted and the reality so far is that the HTS and also the other armed groups have been sending good messages to the Syrian people,” Pedersen said.
“They have been sending messages of unity, of inclusiveness and frankly speaking, we are also seeing in Aleppo and in Hama, we have also seen, you know, reassuring things on the ground.”
At a meeting in Doha, Qatar last weekend, Turkey, Russia, Iran and many Arab States hoped that Damascus’s new rulers would act on their initial promising declarations in favor of a peaceful transition of power.
In a statement on Tuesday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced full US recognition and support for a future Syria government that results from a Syrian-led and Syrian-owned political transition consistent with Security Council resolution 2254.
But that might be a long way off since Syria’s civil war is far from over. In the north, a Turkish proxy militia called the Syrian National Army (SNA) has captured the towns of Manbij and Tel Rifaat, which had been under US-backed Kurdish control since 2016.
Turkey is determined to push back the Kurd-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) armed by the US but branded by Ankara as terrorists affiliated to violent Kurdish rebels in Turkey. The rebel group, called PKK, is designated as terrorist by the US and European Union.
HTS’s Jolani and his affiliates ruled over Idlib close to Turkey’s border but have at times fought both the SNA and SDF. Jolani cannot establish a stable government throughout Syria without finding a way to make peace with both.
That might mean helping to settle Turkey’s conflict with the Syrian Kurds, who gained significant political and military power in recent years by helping Washington to destroy the Islamic State (ISIS) emirate in Syria.
The US still has about 1,000 troops in Syria to help its Kurdish allies to fight ISIS remnants.
Ankara is a US treaty ally within NATO but views Washington’s military support for those Kurds with great anxiety because it sees them as an enemy of the Turkish state bent on carving an independent Kurdish entity in Syria, which could offer safe have to Turkey’s Kurdish rebels.
Iraq and Iran are also worried because that could be a first step to uniting Kurd minorities in Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran to create a militarized independent Kurdish state backed by the US.
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