It’s a lot to process, so here we go
The Guardians have traded second baseman Andres Gimenez and right-handed reliever Nick Sandlin to the Toronto Blue Jays for left-handed hitting first baseman/second baseman Spencer Horwitz and 21 year-old left-handed hitting outfielder Nick Mitchell who spent last season in low-A.
Let me begin this analysis by saying that I don’t think we yet have the full picture of what the Guardians have done here. There is some speculation on Twitter that the Pirates may be trying to acquire Horwitz. This is now me talking - if this is true, maybe it could be part of the Guardians acquiring Mitch Keller, whom I’ve been wondering if the Pirates try to move. Even if this rumor turns out to be nothing, I think the Horwitz acquisition makes the most sense if Josh Naylor is also traded and the savings are invested in either signing or trading for a starting pitcher or two. We don’t yet have the full vision of what the Guardians did today, and that’s important to keep in mind.
As for what we do know, the Guardians have made a rare move for them and exchanged defensive value for offensive value. In Andres Gimenez, the Blue Jays have acquired one of the most valuable defenders in baseball. Since 2022, only Dansby Swanson, Cal Raleigh and Francisco Lindor have exceeded Gimenez in defensive value according to FanGraphs, and the eyes back up what the statsheet says. Guardians fans can regale their Blue Jays fan friends with tales of the legendary defensive feats Gimenez accomplished at second base on a nightly basis. He will now make those plays for Toronto and the Guardians will see if they can mitigate the loss of the value he produced there through other means.
To make true sense of this deal, I need to be able to see the full picture, but, for now, I’m going to proceed as if Horwitz will begin his career in Cleveland playing second base. He is never going to be a great second baseman, but last year he was average there according to OAA (0) and decidedly below average according to DRS (-5) in 288 innings. Let’s split the difference and say that he is roughly -2.5 outs/runs below average compared to Gimenez who, by the same method, is 19 runs above average. In contrast, Gimenez was rougly 20 weighted runs created plus below average as a hitter and Horwitz was 27 wRC+ above average. So, it kinda looks like a wash there, with a slight advantage toward the value Horwitz can provide. If the Guardians play Horwitz at second base, they are saying they believe they need more help offensively than they do defensively, perhaps liking the help Brayan Rocchio can provide at shortstop and Jose Ramirez at third base. Interestingly, the Guardians were 20th in MLB in groundball rate last year. I have spent this offseason assuming they would look for pitchers high in groundball rate to take advantage of having Gimenez, Rocchio and Jose on the infield; now it’s back to the drawing board to look for guys with higher strikeout ceiling and who get people to hit the ball ONLY to the left side of the diamond.
In reality, however, I can’t quite convince myself that the Guardians are going to play Horwitz at second base. He is average to above average at first base and that makes far more sense to me, which, again, leads us to a Josh Naylor trade. So, what might the Guardians like about Horwitz’s bat? He has a 19.3/10.8 K/BB/9 in the majors and a 125 wRC+ for his career. In only 381 plate appearances last season, he hit 12 homers, putting him on pace for over 20 homers if given a full season’s worth of opportunities. His barrel rate was over 5% higher than Gimenez’s was and his hard-hit rate exceeded our former second baseman’s by 8%. His out-of-zone swing rate is 12% less than what Andres has shown for his career. While being two years older than Andres is a bit of a concern, it seems safe to assume that Horwitz is a much better hitter than what Gimenez is likely to be now that his outlier of 2022 is out of the way. I think Gimenez can be average at the plate, but it is no sure thing. Horwitz is probably as certain as rookies go to be 20-30% above average as a hitter.
Horwitz has only a 53 wRC+ against LHP, but he was over .700 in OPS against them in the minors so I would bet on him being more of an 80 wRC+ against them if given more time. Meanwhile, Gimenez’s success against lefties from 2022-2023 came crashing down last season, leaving him with a 64 wRC+ against southpaws. I think both players end up below average but playable there. Meanwhile, Horwitz’s 153 wRC+ against RHP for his career plays very well on a Guardians’ team that was 20th against RHP in 2024 with a 95 wRC+ as a whole. He is a player you can bat 2nd or 6th in your lineup and feel good about him putting up solid plate appearances day-in and day-out, especially if there is some positive regression and additional comfort found against lefties. I don’t mind Horwitz’s age, as the Guardians seem fairly good at identifying late bloomers, and given that I wish they had done so with Brent Rooker. Maybe Horwitz is another David Fry/Brent Rooker type (with a different hitting profile) for the good guys.
The two Nicks in the trade - Sandlin and Mitchell - equal out pretty well for me in value. A 21 year old outfielder who put up a 129 wRC+ in low-A in his age 20 season is as good a lottery ticket as any. Sandlin is as good a bet to bounce back and have a solid season as a sidearming reliever as any of the number of his type who float around on the edges of major league rosters. Lake County should have some fun outfielders to follow with Mitchell and Jaison Chourio likely starting out there in 2025. And, I won’t miss seeing Sandlin give up way too many home runs, especially to lefties, out of the Guardians’ pen.
The big question comes down to what the Guardians plan to do with Horwitz defensively and how they plan to spend the roughly $11 million they saved this year in trading Gimenez and Sandlin. Currently, I don’t believe they plan to simply pocket that money. I’m not quite that jaded. I do believe they are dedicated to upgrading the starting rotation, and, apparently, their offense for another playoff run before Jose Ramirez declines. They are also free from the roughly $85 million they owed Gimenez over the four years after 2025, and I wonder if they attempt to use it to extend other players, or perhaps attract a better quality of starting pitcher for a 3-year deal. Time will tell, and it’s fair to wonder whether players will be a little more reluctant to extend in Cleveland given another trade (thinking of Cookie Carrasco) of a young player who chose to sign an extension to stay in a city he clearly enjoyed and an organization he reportedly loved.
I understand this trade, and I think I can get behind it, especially if a further plan is revealed in subsequent moves. But, I can’t deny sadness over not getting to watch Gimenez make amazing plays defensively for my favorite baseball team. I’m a little terrified of the potential effects on groundball-heavy Emmanuel Clase, for whom it seemed Gime made platinum glove plays every single night. But, I have asked for the team to remember that offensive value is simply more impactful than defensive value in the past, and this deal seems to embrace that mindset. So, I am going to appreciate the great times I had watching Gimenez play defense for the Guardians, and look forward to great times watching Horwitz make more hard contact and take a TON more walks, something the Guardians’ lineup desperately needs.
Now, take this $11 million and upgrade the starting rotation, take that $84 million and extend Steven Kwan and Tanner Bibee, and you will hear no complaints from me about what happened tonight. I’ll treasure my Andres Gimenez jersey I bought after he hit a home run off of the newly despised Mike Clevinger, regardless, but I look forward to being inspired to buy a Spencer Horwitz jersey in the future.
