Rejoice, Mets fans! We are right smack in the middle of the holiday season. And on Sunday night, with baseball writers convening in Dallas for this week’s winter meetings, the Mets signed Juan Soto, the player widely considered the biggest and best present underneath the tree.
By Roberto Carlo
Juan Soto, a lifetime .285/.421/.532/.953 batter has arguably been one of the best hitters in baseball since his debut. At 201 home runs, he’s one of nine NL/AL players in history to do so through age 25. He owns 36.4 career bWAR, the 28th best among active players. He’s never ranked below fifth in on-base percentage, and his .421 on-base percentage is 19th best all-time. The Mets finally have an on-base machine and a one-two punch in Francisco Lindor and Soto at the top of the order that will be feared.
Soto has often been called this generation’s Ted Williams and even rose to prominence in the league with the nickname Childish Bambino. Suffice it to say there are many things to like about what Soto brings to the batters’ box. His numbers have been great across the board, but he has particularly mashed in Citi Field, his new home ballpark. In 35 career games in Queens, Soto has a 1.175 OPS with 12 home runs, including two of the five longest round-trippers in the stadium’s history (466 ft and 463 ft).
A five-time Silver Slugger and four-time All-Star, Soto finished second for Rookie of the Year voting in 2019 and finished in the top 10 of MVP voting five times. He finished second in 2021 and third in 2024. A hitter to all fields, Soto has a career OPS+ of 160 and wRC+ of 158.
While he’s had better success against right-handed pitchers, batting .293/.439/.561/1.000 against them, he fares well against southpaws too. Soto has a .268/.383/.475/.857 career line against lefties. In 2024, Soto had a 19 run value against the four-seam fastball, hitting .394 against it and an xSLG of .791. New free agent Pete Alonso had the best run value against the four-seamer in 2024 for the Mets, at 16, and hit .259 against it.
His playoff numbers are also superb. He has hit .281/.389/.538 in the postseason, totaling 11 HR and 30 RBI in 43 games. The week he turned 20, Soto hit a few memorable home runs in the 2019 World Series against Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander, which eventually helped his Washington Nationals secure a World Series win.
His Baseball Savant page in 2024 was a sea of red.
Soto’s glove leaves much to be desired (hey, nobody said this guy was perfect). Soto has mostly played left field but shifted to right field in 2024, as the Yankees wanted him to play in what they deemed to be the easier side of the field. He was actually a Gold Glove finalist this year, but that was met with scoffs and side-eyes from even the most fervent Yankee fans.
Soto finished with a negative five OAA, landing him in the 14th percentile in range and 38th percentile in fielding run value in 2024. His throwing arm is his best asset (90th percentile), but his 36th percentile sprint speed mirrors his lack of swiftness on the basses.
Unfortunately for the Mets and Soto’s defensive alignment, left field appears to be taken for the long term, with Brandon Nimmo under contract for six more seasons. Nimmo played some RF in his first few seasons as a Met but hasn’t suited up there in a regular season game since 2020. And with right field being the trickier area in Citi Field to man, the Mets will have a difficult choice to make with who to stick in the tougher spot. There is always the chance that Starling Marte might pick up some of those reps, moving Soto to left or DH, but the Mets will have similar defensive concerns with Marte. Nevertheless, the Mets will happily deal with those defensive quandaries if it means they can pencil in Soto’s name in the lineup every day.
The Mets signed Soto to a mind-boggling 15-year, $765 million contract, first reported by ESPN‘s Jeff Passan. The contract has zero deferrals and includes a $75 million signing bonus. Soto can opt-out after five years, but much like the long-term deal between Gerrit Cole and the Yankees that resolved itself earlier this offseason, the Mets can void Soto’sopt-out by escalating his average annual average value from $51 million to $55 million over the final 10 years. Jorge Castillo of ESPN first reported the key addendum.
This signing isn’t just the largest contract in franchise or baseball history; it’s the largest deal in professional sports history. It surpasses Shohei Ohtani‘s deal in terms of total value by $65 million and Fernando Tatís Jr.’s contract in years, 15 to 14. Soto turns 27 on October 25 of next year, and I’m sure Soto, his new teammates, and Mets fans hope there’s a game scheduled that night.
JUAN SOTO. THREE-RUN HOMER. @YANKEES LEAD IN THE 10TH! pic.twitter.com/w5goa4pSwz
— MLB (@MLB) October 20, 2024
The cherry on top for Met fans is who they beat out for Soto. The battle for Soto’s services reportedly turned into what many thought it would: a duel between crosstown rivals. And in the end, the swashbuckling Steve Cohen made his biggest mark as Mets owner. The Yankees did come close, offering 16 years and $760 million, according to MLB.com‘s Mark Feinsand. And according to SNY‘s Andy Martino, the Yankees had the poll position for most of the offseason, up to and including late Sunday afternoon. But a year and two days after trading for him from the Padres, Hal Steinbrenner and the Yankees lost out on Soto to Cohen and the Mets.
Many outlets reported the five finalists for Soto were the two New York teams, along with the Dodgers, Blue Jays and Red Sox. Boston’s bid was in a more vague 15-year, $700M range, according to MassLive.com columnist Sean McAdam.
While many Met fans were hopeful and perhaps even expectant in their favorite team’s pursuit of free agent Juan Soto, it is important to step back and realize just how crazy and meaningful it is that he is a Met. The Mets have a ready-made superstar! And they stole him from the Yankees! THAT NEVER HAPPENS. Until now, it was a rite of passage for the Yankees to sign every free agent they were truly all in on, especially those who were on their team.
Just over a year ago, the largest contract in baseball history was Mike Trout‘s 12-year, $426.5 million deal. Trout was 27 when he signed the contract in 2019 and was objectively the best player. But that contract was an extension, not one signed during free agency.
A year ago today, Shohei Ohtani shredded the record book and started one of his own, signing for 10 years and $700 million. The talk during those preceding months was “Will Shohei be the first $500 million player?” “He can’t possibly get $600 million, can he?” The day he signed for $700 million, the sports world gasped. The vastly important context is the total deferral amount, which strongly reduced his “present-day” value.
The real caveat to those negotiations is that Ohtani is unique, one of a kind. He inherently provides double the value, exceeding both as a pitcher and as a hitter. So surely, his contract must also be unique? A year later, it was not.
Soto is not the five-tool player Trout was (and still is when healthy) or the unicorn Ohtani is. But what Soto had that those players did not was the perfect storm of a free agency. Without a specific desired location in mind, Soto was seriously courted by various teams, all believing they had a good chance to get him. And with Soto having moved from team to team, having no real home base, he truly was a free agent. One was meeting with teams from the biggest markets across the country. Compile that with a true bidding war between two neighborhood rivals, all the ingredients were there to make history. And that’s what the Mets and Juan Soto have done.
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