For the first time, Iran was unable to defend the Assad regime in Syria over the weekend when rebel forces seized control of Damascus. The Assad family, which has maintained power in Syria for more than five decades, has finally crumbled.
Since the Syrian Civil War commenced back in 2011, Tehran has played a key role in propping up the Assad dictatorship, which has carried out crimes against humanity on multiple occasions against its population. Iran’s Axis of Resistance extends from Yemen and Lebanon to Iraq, the Gaza Strip, and formerly Syria.
Without its stronghold in Damascus, which has functioned as a pillar of Iran’s proxy-warfare strategy, Tehran’s regional influence has been fractured. The fall of the Assad dictatorship will undoubtedly send shock waves through neighboring countries, perhaps most prominently in Iraq.
Tehran’s grasp on Iraq extends through nearly every sector of society- including its political, economic, and military spheres. Since the fall of Saddam Hussein’s regime in the early 2000s, Tehran has been able to seep into Baghdad primarily through the paramilitary groups it funds and trains. While the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) in Iraq were created initially to help thwart the Islamic State, the group has been infiltrated by Iran and is used to wield the regime’s influence in the country.
In addition to gaining hold of Iraq militarily, Tehran has also attempted to infiltrate Baghdad by partnering with Shiite parties to create a weak federal state monopolized by those agreeable to Iranian influence. Economically, Iran’s detrimental influence in Iraq has contributed to economic instability as dozens of front companies in Iraq are operated to support Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards-Quds Force and affiliated PMF groups like Kataib Hezbollah.
The fall of the Assad regime and the weakened clout Iran now has on the region will impact Iraq’s already fragile state.
Over the weekend, an Iraqi government spokesperson noted that "Everything that is happening in Syria is directly related to Iraqi national security, and therefore Iraq cannot remain far from understanding the developments and studying the extent of their impact on it now and in the future." Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is the most powerful insurgent group in Syria today. Formerly tied to Al-Qaeda, the designated terror group is now set to help form a new Syrian government. The group’s leader Golani previously refused to merge HTS into the Islamic State and claimed that it had no aspirations to extend arms beyond the borders of Syria. However, only time will tell whether HTS becomes a direct threat to Iraq’s present government.
From Iran’s deteriorating influence in the Middle East to a new neighboring government, Iraq will have a lot to grapple with shortly. "Iraq rejects exposing the Syrian people to more suffering and pain after these long years of ordeal and diaspora," Iraq’s spokesperson stated. "And Iraq seriously warns against tampering with national and religious minorities or trying to incite divisions in the Syrian social fabric and their effects on the neighborhood."
Maya Carlin, National Security Writer with The National Interest, is an analyst with the Center for Security Policy and a former Anna Sobol Levy Fellow at IDC Herzliya in Israel. She has by-lines in many publications, including The National Interest, Jerusalem Post, and Times of Israel. You can follow her on Twitter: @MayaCarlin. Carlin has over 1,000 articles published over the last several years on various defense issues.
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