In my Nieman Lab prediction for 2023, I expected to see a rise in antitrust news. It has indeed been a packed two years for reporters in this beat, often involving market regulation and consumer protection stories. Google faced three monopoly trials, with one of them poised to reshape ad revenues for news publishers. Similarly, Grocery giants Kroger and Albertsons — who are attempting to merge — faced off the Federal Trade Commission, and the states of Washington and Colorado, in three separate trials this year.
AI has also entered into the equation in a massive way. News first introduced us to AI tools as a shiny, new way of producing and using synthetic content. Shorty after, we learned the risks of this AI rollout to workers, especially in journalism and the creative industries, as well as for climate change and people’s safety. The reporting on real impacts of large-scale AI in society helped us pull away from distracting narratives of AI-driven dystopian and utopian worlds.
Although it may not be immediately clear, all these issues are pertinent to competition and antitrust. In the year ahead, as more journalists delve into AI risks and harms, I expect to see these issues converge under an antitrust lens. Since the Trump administration is likely to roll back executive orders on competition and AI regulation, my hope is that more journalists pivot their attention to state and local coverage of these issues.
There are already some clear examples of this convergence of AI and antitrust. In the litigation of Google’s search monopoly in D.C., the judge overseeing the case just decided that assessing the impact of AI in search will be part of the remedies trial next April. For journalists, this involves developing a deeper understanding of how foundation models are built, and how technology companies operating multiple lines of business can leverage existing data advantages to entrench their power in nascent markets.
Other angles are hidden gems. About media: while compensation deals between AI companies and news publishers may sound good, who gives what and under what conditions depends on bargaining power. Are such deals going to restrict journalists’ ability to use other AI companies’ tools, or maybe the type of reporting they do on the AI companies the publishers have deals with?
It’s no surprise that newer companies such as OpenAI (backed by Microsoft) and Perplexity AI — facing copyright litigation — are seeking these deals with publishers. In contrast, it’s almost impossible to negotiate with older and larger companies such as Google, Meta, or Amazon about the use of news content in their AI models. A bigger question for local journalism arises too. The more updated and unique information is, the more value it has for an AI model. So, how are local outlets going to capitalize on that opportunity? Can they do so without sacrificing editorial independence?
On workers: going back to the example in media, how is the revenue from the AI deals going to be invested in journalists? Independent creators using social media or e-learning platforms for a living, will they control how their work is used by those companies’ AI models? How much further will labor protections be eroded by the poor pay and surveillance of workers behind data labeling for AI training? (This is not, by the way, a problem exclusive to developing countries).
On climate change: the impact of embedding AI in everything we do cannot be measured without scrutinizing how data centers work — the power and water resources needed — and what states sacrifice in order to host data centers (hint: tax breaks). Even more urgent is reporting on how intrinsically at odds is building an environmentally resilient future with Big Tech rushing to profit from AI (especially as this sector pushes to revive nuclear power).
The list goes on. Attorneys general across the country are likely to continue leading the charge in antitrust enforcement. We will likely see more state action in the proposed Kroger-Albertsons merge. In Texas, Google will face a new trial for monopolizing digital advertising next April, distinct from the federal case. Lawsuits against Amazon’s alleged monopolization of online retail are also steadily moving forward in Washington, D.C., and California.
The antitrust beat and its intersections with various sectors that affect people’s lives and small businesses is far from over. Perhaps, a push for this type of reporting is what’s missing to rebuild trust in journalism.
Karina Montoya is a senior reporter and policy analyst at the Open Markets Institute.
