COLUMBUS, Ohio (WCMH) -- After a warmer than normal than normal November, things ended on a pretty chilly note. As a whole, November was sitting at the top position until the holiday, and then the big chill that followed put a pretty big dent in the totals, dropping us to the fifth warmest November on record.
In fact, November was the 15th month in a row with above normal temps in Columbus, dating to August of 2023, when we finished the month 1.0 degree below normal. But all indications are that we are going to finish the year as one of the warmest on record, if not the warmest on record since 1879, when record-keeping in the city started.
For December, we normally have an average temp of 34.5°. The average temp is based on the daily highs plus the daily lows divided by the number of days in the month. For us to maintain the record (which we currently hold through the first 11 months of this year), we would need to have an average temperature that is 27.9° or higher for the final month of the year. We have only had a December average temp of 27.9° or lower 23 times, and only twice since 2000.
In 2000, we had one of the coldest Decembers on record, with an average temp of only 23.3°; more recently, in 2010, the average December temp was 26.5°. In fact, if hit the record for the coldest December on record in Columbus, 19.8° in 1989, we would still finish with the fourth warmest year ever in the city.
Well... if we want to destroy our warm streak we have been on, the first five days of this month are doing the trick for sure. The first roughly 1/6th of the month (December 1-5) have started us out an incredible 10.0° below normal. If we were to continue the rest of the month at that pace (which we are not), it would put us into the top 6 coldest Decembers all time, and would drop this year to the third warmest on record.
However, for the first weekend and into the second week of the month, things are set to make a turnaround. This turnaround should linger into the following week as well. Now, to be clear, it doesn't mean we are not going to see some chilly days here and there, but a prolonged streak of 10 straight days below normal is highly unlikely.
To note, in December, we start out with an average temp of 38.4° (46° high/31° low), and drop to an average of 31.1° (38° high/24° low) by the last day of the month. So it will 100% get colder through the month as it always does.
But based on what normally happens in December, things are looking up! We will start this week above normal and stay that way for a few days. We will see a pullback in temps later in this week, but then another mild spell is expected into the weekend.
The Climate Prediction Center's official outlooks seem to confirm this forecast pattern, as their 6-10 day outlooks keep chances near normal for that period. That would be consistent with the cooldown for the first few days, and then the average out going into the weekend.
The 8-14 day outlook would actually expand the chances greatly of above normal temps across not only our area, but the region, as longer-term models are looking for a somewhat wavy pattern, where a large ridge would be building across the eastern half of the country, and sizeable trough out west.
What is interesting to note, is the longer-range models have gone to a storm track more supportive of a southwest to northeast flow for the middle to later part of the month. This generally would lead to warmer than normal temps. However, when a system does develop from the southwest, and approaches our area, they do tend to be a bit wetter for this time of the year.
For instance, you can note where the storm track is to our west, where the 6-10 day precip outlook from the Climate Prediction Center paints better chances of above normal precip. Something to note from this storm track, if the cold air that dumps in behind these storm systems can lock up correctly, there could be a good dumping of snow near these things on the west side of the low as it tracks northeast.
The Christmas forecast is too far to nail down with confidence this far out, but with this pattern in place, there is a chance for the correct storm track to give us all what we wish for on Christmas morning. Historically, white Christmases are not the norm for our area, with only about a 23% chance of it, but that is much better than 0% ????
-Dave
