Now under new management, what will the Cardinals bring to the court Sunday?
Date 12/8 || Time 6:00 || Venue Yum! Center || Video ACCN
Next up for Duke is Louisville at Louisville and that’s a tough one to figure.
For the last couple of years, Louisville has suffered and/or slept through the low-energy Kenny Payne era.
Well that’s over now because if he didn’t do anything else, Pat Kelsey brings a jolt of energy to the Cardinals, and that program really needed it.
Long one of the more respected mid-major (can anyone come up with a better term? Please?) coaches, Kelsey was tremendous at Winthrop before a three-year stint at Charleston. Other than a 14-17 record in his first season at Winthrop, Kelsey has been terrific. His record at Winthrop was 186-95 and at Charleston it was 75-27. Overall, his career record was 261-123. It might not sound that impressive but winning consistently at smaller schools is not easy. And Kelsey did win. In 2022-23, Charleston was 31-4 and last season, the Cougars were 27-8.
In other words, in his last two seasons, Charleston was 58-12. Pretty clearly, the dude knows what he’s doing.
He needs to, too, because Louisville was a mess when he got there.
Payne was hired largely because Louisville came under a lot of pressure to hire one of their own. Payne was on the 1986 championship team that defeated Duke. Like Pervis Ellison, he was a freshman on that team.
Unfortunately, his time as head coach was a disaster. Payne turned in a 4-28 stinker in his first season and last year, the Cards were improved, but still just 8-24, a numerical palindrome.
Well, sort of. Close enough.
Every player left after he was terminated and Kelsey had to put together a roster on the fly. Not suprisingly, he approached that with admirable energy too and he ended up with some decent players.
Unfortunately, Louisville has had a rash of injuries. Kelsey was using a 10-man rotation but before the season started, Aly Khalia and Kobe Rogers were redshirted due to injuries. Aboubacar Traore and Koren Johnson have both been out since the second game of the year and Kasean Pryor blew out his ACL against Oklahoma in the Battle 4 Atlantis championship game. He was getting 12.0 ppg and 6.1 boards and putting in 23.4 minutes an outing.
That’s a lot to overcome.
On the bright side, Chuckie Hepburn has been terrific. The Wisconsin transfer (6-2 senior) is averaging 15.1 ppg, 3.1 rebounds and 4.5 assists.
Reyne Smith, a 6-2 senior from Australia, followed Payne from Charleston. He’s getting 12.5 ppg and 3.1 boards.
J’Vonne Hadley, a 6-6 transfer from Colorado, puts up 9.8 ppg and 7.5 boards.
We’ll run down the other guys in the rotation and come back to one other:
Noah Waterman, a 6-11/230 lb. senior from BYU. He’s getting 6.8 ppg and 4.3 rpg.
James Scott, a 6-11/220 lb. sophomore from Charleston. He’s putting up 6.8 ppg and grabbing 4.9 boards.
Finally, Kobe Rooths, a 6-3 senior who also came over from Charleston, is managing 3.4 ppg and 3.1 rebounds.
And the guy we were coming back to? You’ll remember him.
Terrence Edwards, a 6-6 senior, played for James Madison last season and led his team in a notable tournament upset of Wisconsin, which means that he and Chucky Hepburn are not teammates.
The next game saw the Dukes get handled by Duke, as Edwards and company lost by 38. Could be just us, but we’re guessing he hasn’t forgotten that.
It’s possible that the injured players might help this, but at his previous stops, Kelsey used the three pointer pretty well. That’s not happening now: this team is shooting just 27.3 percent from outside.
That’s a problem in general, but since Duke is playing lockdown defense, and particularly inside, Louisville could really use some solid outside shooting. That’s not to say they won't get it, but the odds are against it.
The other problem they’re going to have is stopping Duke around the basket. They’ll probably zone - it would be the smart thing to do, given their injuries and Duke’s inside dominance - but they’ll have a tough time stopping Duke inside.
The Blue Devils will be favored here, possibly heavily, but Louisville makes us wary for a few reasons. First of all, Kelsey is a heck of a coach. Secondly, Edwards is a guy we could see exploding, and not just because he owes Duke one. He’s a talented player and he’s our odds-on favorite to erupt in this game. And third, Louisville is a basketball town. They love their Cardinals and they know how to help a team to an upset.
So yes, Duke will be favored, but you can’t rule an upset out. And if you think you can, we’d just like to remind you of Duke’s visit to Georgia Tech last season. So don’t get cocky.
