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The labor market appears to still be strong but isn't overheated, which is good news for mortgage rates.
On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the U.S. economy added 227,000 jobs in November, while the unemployment rate ticked up a tenth of a percentage point to 4.2%.
After this report was released, investors upped their bets that the Federal Reserve will cut the federal funds rate at its meeting later this month, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. As the Fed lowers its benchmark rate, mortgage rates are expected to go down as well.
Later this week, we'll also get an updated look at how inflation is trending with November's consumer price index data. Inflation has slowed substantially since it peaked in 2022, but it ticked up slightly in October. As long as inflation continues to ease, mortgage rates should drop in 2025. But if this incoming CPI data shows that inflation ran hotter than expected last month, rates could rise.
Use our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments.
By plugging in different term lengths and interest rates, you'll see how your monthly payment could change.
Average 30-year mortgage rates are hovering around 6.20%, according to Zillow data. Rates increased to 6.56% in November.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is the most popular home loan. With this type of mortgage, you'll pay back what you borrowed over 30 years, and your interest rate won't change for the life of the loan.
The lengthy 30-year term allows you to spread out your payments over a long period of time, meaning you can keep your monthly payments lower and more manageable. The trade-off is that you'll have a higher rate than you would with shorter terms, like a 15-year mortgage.
Average 15-year mortgage rates are around 5.60%, according to Zillow data. In November, 15-year rates averaged 5.92%.
If you want the predictability that comes with a fixed rate but are looking to spend less on interest over the life of your loan, a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage might be a good fit for you. Because these terms are shorter and have lower rates than 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, you could potentially save tens of thousands of dollars in interest. However, you'll have a higher monthly payment than you would with a longer term.
Refinance rates have been a bit higher than purchase rates recently. Last month, 30-year refinance rates averaged 6.62%, while 15-year refinance rates were around 5.96%.
If you're wondering if you should refinance now, you'll need to crunch the numbers to see if it makes sense. Some experts advise only refinancing if you can reduce your rate by a percentage point or more, but it really comes down to whether it works for your individual circumstances.
If you can save enough each month by refinancing that you can recoup your costs in a reasonable amount of time, it might be worth it. You can calculate this by dividing your closing costs by the amount you're saving on your monthly mortgage payment. So, if you paid $3,000 to refinance and were able to lower your monthly payment by $200, it would take you 15 months to break even on your refinance.
Here's how 30-year and 15-year mortgage rates have trended over the last five years, according to Freddie Mac data.
Mortgage rates are determined by a variety of different factors, including larger economic trends, Federal Reserve policy, your state's current mortgage rates, the type of loan you're getting, and your personal financial profile.
While many of these factors are out of your control, you can work on improving your credit score, paying off debt, and saving for a larger down payment to ensure you get the best rate possible.
The Fed increased the federal funds rate dramatically in 2022 and 2023 to try to slow economic growth and get inflation under control. Inflation has since slowed significantly, but it's still slightly above the Fed's 2% target rate.
Mortgage rates aren't directly impacted by changes to the federal funds rate, but they often trend up or down ahead of Fed policy moves. This is because mortgage rates change based on investor demand for mortgage-backed securities, and this demand is often impacted by how investors expect Fed policy to affect the broader economy.
Fed officials have lowered the federal funds rate twice so far this year, and they're expected to continue lowering it at future meetings.
Most major forecasts expect mortgage rates to go down, but they may not drop a lot in the near term. We could see rates fall a bit in 2025.
Mortgage rates started ticking up from historic lows in the second half of 2021 and increased dramatically in 2022 and throughout most of 2023. But now that inflation has decelerated and the Fed has started cutting rates, mortgage rates have trended down compared to where they were a year ago. In the last 12 months, the consumer price index rose by 2.6%. This is a significant slowdown compared to when it peaked at 9.1% in 2022.
How much rates go down depends on how the economy evolves. If economic conditions remain stable, mortgage rates may not fall as much. But if the labor market weakens and the Fed has to cut rates more aggressively, we could see rates drop substantially.
Rates are unlikely to drop back down to the historic lows of 2020 and 2021, when 30-year fixed rates fell below 3%. But we could see them settle in closer to 6% by the end of next year.
We aren't likely to see home prices drop anytime soon thanks to extremely limited supply. In fact, they'll likely rise this year as mortgage rates drop.
Fannie Mae researchers expect prices to increase 5.8% in 2024, while the Mortgage Bankers Association expects a 3.8% increase in 2024.
Lower mortgage rates will bring more buyers onto the market, potentially putting upward pressure on prices. But prices aren't expected to increase as much as they have in recent years.
You have a lot of options when it comes to finding the right type of mortgage for you. First, you'll need to decide if you want a fixed-rate mortgage or an adjustable-rate mortgage.
Fixed-rate mortgages lock in your rate for the entire life of your loan. Adjustable-rate mortgages lock in your rate for the first few years, then your rate can go up or down periodically based on market conditions.
How do you choose between a fixed-rate vs. adjustable-rate mortgage?
ARMs often (but not always) start with lower rates than fixed-rate mortgages, but ARM rates change once your fixed-rate introductory period is over. If you plan on moving or refinancing before the rate adjusts, an ARM could be a good deal. But keep in mind that a change in circumstances could prevent you from doing these things, so it's a good idea to think about whether your budget could handle a higher monthly payment.
Fixed-rate mortgages are a good choice for borrowers who want stability, since your monthly principal and interest payments won't change throughout the life of the loan (though your mortgage payment could increase if your taxes or insurance go up).
But in exchange for this stability, you may get a higher rate. This might seem like a bad deal right now, but if rates increase further down the road, you might be glad to have a rate locked in. And if rates trend down, you may be able to refinance to snag a lower rate.
Conventional mortgages are home loans that aren't backed by a government agency. They're often a good option for borrowers with strong credit scores. Conventional loans allow down payments as low as 3%, though putting at least 20% down will allow you to avoid paying for private mortgage insurance.
The main types of government-backed mortgages are:
Government-backed mortgages are often a good choice for borrowers with low credit scores, first-time homebuyers, or those who don't have a lot of money saved for a down payment. They also typically have lower mortgage rates compared to conventional loans.
You'll also need to decide what term length you want. Your mortgage term is how long you have to pay back the loan. Most borrowers get a 30-year term, since it's the longest term available and results in the lowest monthly payment.
Shorter terms, like a 15-year mortgage, can be a good option if you're looking to save money on interest. But because you're paying off the loan in half the amount of time you have with a 30-year mortgage, your monthly payments will be much higher.
