Does Early Firing Give Ryan Poles An Edge In Coach Search? You’ll Be Surprised

The Chicago Bears broke a 105-year streak of never firing a head coach in the middle of a season. It was something the McCaskey family had tried desperately to cling to over the past decade despite multiple instances where it would’ve been justified. At last, after watching Matt Eberflus bungle yet another opportunity with late-game ineptitude. GM Ryan Poles and team president Kevin Warren compelled ownership to end the suffering. They obliged. Eberflus was fired on Black Friday, ushering Thomas Brown into the interim role.

A lot of people are ecstatic about this. It means the Bears can get an early start on their coaching search. That has to be an advantage, right? Five extra weeks of research, asking around the league, and setting up interviews are sure to give Poles an edge this time around. That raised an intriguing question. So I went all the way back to 2000 and went through every team that fired their coach before the end of the season and who they chose as a replacement to see if this idea of extra time means anything.

The results were fascinating.

Below is a list of every name. Those who are in bold were coaches who led their team to at least one playoff victory during their subsequent tenure. Those with an asterisk won a Super Bowl.

• 2000 Cincinnati Bengals – Promoted interim Dick LeBeau
• 2000 Arizona Cardinals – Promoted interim Dave McGinnis
• 2005 Cleveland Browns – Hired Romeo Crennel
• 2005 Miami Dolphins – Hired Nick Saban
• 2006 Detroit Lions – Hired Rod Marinelli
• 2006 St. Louis Rams – Hired Scott Linehan
• 2007 Atlanta Falcons – Hired Mike Smith
• 2008 St. Louis Rams – Hired Steve Spagnuolo
• 2008 Oakland Raiders – Promoted interim Tom Cable
• 2008 San Francisco 49ers – Promoted interim Mike Singletary
• 2009 Buffalo Bills – Hired Chan Gailey
• 2010 Dallas Cowboys – Promoted interim Jason Garrett
• 2010 Minnesota Vikings – Promoted interim Leslie Frazier
• 2010 Denver Broncos – Hired John Fox
• 2010 San Francisco 49ers – Hired Jim Harbaugh
• 2011 Jacksonville Jaguars – Hired Mike Mularkey
• 2011 Miami Dolphins – Hired Joe Philbin
• 2014 Oakland Raiders – Hired Jack Del Rio
• 2015 Miami Dolphins – Hired Adam Gase
• 2015 Philadelphia Eagles – Hired Doug Pederson*
• 2015 Tennessee Titans – Promoted Mike Mularkey
• 2016 Buffalo Bills – Hired Sean McDermott
• 2016 Jacksonville Jaguars – Promoted Doug Marrone
• 2016 Los Angeles Rams – Hired Sean McVay*
• 2017 New York Giants – Hired Pat Shurmur
• 2018 Cleveland Browns – Hired Freddie Kitchens
• 2018 Green Bay Packers – Hired Matt Lafleur
• 2019 Carolina Panthers – Hired Matt Rhule
• 2019 Washington Commanders – Hired Ron Rivera
• 2020 Atlanta Falcons – Hired Arthur Smith
• 2020 Detroit Lions – Hired Dan Campbell
• 2020 Houston Texans – Hired David Culley
• 2021 Jacksonville Jaguars – Hired Doug Pederson
• 2022 Carolina Panthers – Hired Frank Reich
• 2022 Denver Broncos – Traded for Sean Payton
• 2022 Indianapolis Colts – Hired Shane Steichen
• 2023 Carolina Panthers – Hired Dave Canales
• 2023 Los Angeles Chargers – Hired Jim Harbaugh

The data here is encouraging for Ryan Poles. To a point.

The early part of the new millennium was ugly. Only one of the first 11 coaches hired after a midseason firing had any success. However, right around 2010, things began shifting. Of the final 27 coaches, 10 ended up winning a playoff game. Three others made the postseason at least once. Payton and Harbaugh are on track to do that this year with their respective teams. It appears organizations have gotten much better at using their resources to identify quality coaches over the past 14 years, including two of the Bears’ biggest rivals.

That should give Ryan Poles some confidence. Going from a 9.09% hit rate to 40.7% is a sign that the extra time can work if it’s used well. Poles and Warren are known for being methodical and detailed in their approaches. If they work together, they should come away with good data on who the actual best candidates are. From there, it comes down to luck.