On Saturday, the final pay-per-view event of the year takes place when UFC 310 goes down in Las Vegas.
Headlined by a flyweight title fight between Alexandre Pantoja and Kai Asakura and featuring a five-round co-main event between undefeated fighters Shavkat Rakhmonov and Ian Machado Garry, UFC 310 looks like one of the best events of the year, so let’s dive into the best bets for this weekend.
All odds are courtesy of our friends at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Alexander Volkov (+290)
What, you’re going to bet against that flow? Look at him!
But seriously, Volkov is a big underdog for his rematch with Ciryl Gane, and while I sort of understand it, I fundamentally disagree. In their first fight, Gane was simply faster than Volkov and used that speed to out-point him over 25 minutes. Could that happen again? Sure. But even in that fight, it’s not like Gane dummied Volkov (statistically, it was actually pretty close), and more importantly, Volkov now knows there’s a way he can attack Gane.
Jon Jones ran over Gane with one takedown, and while Volkov doesn’t often wrestle, he is a capable grappler. I think Volkov comes into this fight looking to mix the martial arts, which adds a whole new wrinkle. Plus, Gane hasn’t fought in 15 months, Volkov’s on a heater, and this is only three rounds this time. All signs point to this matchup being closer than the odds suggest.
Michael Chiesa (-110)
On the prelims, Chiesa takes on Max Griffin in a welterweight contest that figures to be pretty fun. Griffin is obviously the superior striker, but Chiesa remains a very threatening grappler, and Griffin has never been an incredible defensive wrestler. Most important, though, Saturday is Michael Chiesa’s 37th birthday! No man wants to get beat up on his birthday! Chiesa is going to come in with some extra pep in his step and pick up a win, giving himself the greatest birthday gift of all: victory.
Clay Guida (+680)
Speaking of birthday boys! Guida’s 43rd birthday is on Sunday, just one day after he meets Chase Hooper in the octagon.
No, but seriously, I’m taking Guida because it’s his birthday weekend. I’m taking him because Chase Hooper shouldn’t be a -1000 favorite over any credible opponent. Hooper is 3-3 as a betting favorite for crying out loud!
Yes, I know Hooper tapped him recently in grappling, and I do think Hooper will win, but this price is way too high, so I splashed on “The Carpenter.”
Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Asakura OVER 2.5 Rounds (-128)
There’s a full breakdown of this fight you can go check out, but the short version is this: Pantoja is nigh unkillable, so I don’t think Asakura gets him out of there early, and at the same time, Pantoja’s become a little conservative with his offense of late. Pantoja likely goes heavy with the wrestling, and Asakura is a good enough grappler to avoid getting finished, so this fight goes long.
Y’all know I love a gimmick, and this weekend presents a very obvious one. Two fighters on this card have perfect 18-0 MMA records. We’re tying them together.
Shavkat Rakhmonov (-410)
Full credit to Ian Machado Garry for stepping up and taking this fight on short notice, but this is a pretty tough matchup for him.
Garry is a very good fighter, but he’s not the dynamic finisher that Rakhmonov is. He might have a slight advantage in range striking, but when Rakhmonov gets him in a clinch or on the ground, it’s a Code Red situation for Garry. He simply isn’t the same kind of fighter in those spaces, and I expect Rakhmonov to continue his dominant ways.
Movsar Evloev (-260)
Evloev faces Aljamain Sterling in a prelim bout that should be a featherweight title eliminator, and I like his chances to remain undefeated.
Sterling is a great fighter, but the former bantamweight champion will be a little undersized against Evloev, up at 145 pounds, and his best weapon is unlikely to serve him well. Sterling is a grappler through and through, and Evloev has proven himself more than capable of rolling with anyone in this weight class. If this comes down to the striking, Evloev isn’t great, but Sterling is still so uncomfortable on the feet that I believe Evloev can win that phase as well.
Parlay these two bets together for -139 odds.
There are only two events left this year, so let’s enjoy them and hopefully make a little cash before the holidays.
Until next week, enjoy the fights, good luck, and gamble responsibly!
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