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TikTok could be gone from the US in a couple of months.
Congress passed a law in April that set a nine-month deadline for TikTok's owner, ByteDance, to divest from the app or be booted from US app stores. The US government is on track to force the app out on January 19, the day before Donald Trump takes office. There's a possibility that President Joe Biden could extend that deadline by 90 days, but he hasn't said he will.
So will a TikTok ban actually happen?
Many of the app's stakeholders are acting as if it won't. TikTok employees, business partners, and creators are going about their business largely as usual, even with a divestment deadline looming. Some may expect the ban attempt to fail, as it has in the past.
Read more about why TikTok's main constituents aren't panicking about a ban.
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TikTok has faced threats of banishment at the state and federal level before, and judges have repeatedly struck down ban attempts following legal challenges.
TikTok challenged the divest-or-ban law in the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, but the three-judge panel ruled against the company in December. That outcome was expected, as September oral arguments didn't go well for the company and judges in the DC Circuit tend to be deferential to Congress on issues of national security, even in cases where Americans' First Amendment rights are at stake, legal experts previously told Business Insider.
"The First Amendment exists to protect free speech in the United States," the DC Circuit ruling says. "Here the Government acted solely to protect that freedom from a foreign adversary nation and to limit that adversary's ability to gather data on people in the United States."
While there is bipartisan support in Congress for a TikTok ban, support for a ban is fading among the American public. A Pew Research Center survey from July and August revealed that about one in three US adults (32%) supported a government ban, down from 50% in March 2023.
TikTok is likely to appeal the court's decision, and it may ultimately end up before the Supreme Court. If those justices rule against TikTok, it may have another path to survival.
President-elect Trump has said he would try to save TikTok once in office, a flip-flop from his position during his first presidential term.
Legal experts previously told BI that Trump could try a few different tactics to keep TikTok around, including telling his Justice Department not to enforce the divest-or-ban law or attempting to skirt around it through strategic interpretations of its text. Both strategies would be tough to pull off, however.
"Because the law was enacted by Congress, I'm not sure how much wiggle room a future Trump administration would have to ignore it," G.S. Hans, a clinical professor of law at Cornell Law School, previously told BI.
Read more about the obstacles facing Trump if he decides to try to rescue TikTok
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Trump could also try to broker a sale of TikTok's US assets to a non-Chinese company, a remedy prescribed in the divest-or-ban law. ByteDance has previously said it wouldn't sell TikTok, but it could be the simplest option for keeping the app around in the US.
A TikTok sale seems to be the preferred path forward among some members of Congress. Rep. John Moolenaar, chairman of the House Select Committee on the Strategic Competition Between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party, told BI in a statement that the Trump administration "will have a unique opportunity to broker an American takeover of the platform, allowing TikTok users to continue to enjoy a safer, better version of the app free from foreign adversary control."
The Chinese government may block ByteDance from selling TikTok's US assets and a TikTok sale could become a bargaining chip in larger US-China trade negotiations.
Government officials have been worried about TikTok's growing influence in the US for years.
Its owner, ByteDance, is based in China, a country the US has deemed a foreign adversary. This has sparked fears among some officials that the company could be compelled to hand over sensitive US user data from TikTok to the Chinese Communist Party. Some members of Congress have raised concerns that TikTok could be used as a CCP propaganda tool.
TikTok has previously said it does not share information with the Chinese government and that its content moderation efforts are run by a US-based team that "operates independently from China."
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TikTok may not be the only company under threat come January.
ByteDance owns several other apps, such as its video editing tool CapCut and Pinterest-like app Lemon8, that could also be subject to the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act.
The bill's text specifically names TikTok and ByteDance as covered companies. But its language is fairly broad, and could impact any company that is 1) owned by a foreign adversary and 2) permits a user to "create an account or profile to generate, share, and view text, images, videos, real-time communications, or similar content" (i.e. social media).
The bill's framework excludes platforms where users "post product reviews, business reviews, or travel information and reviews," however, which suggests that Chinese e-commerce platforms Shein and Temu would remain safe from enforcement.
