Research on complex dynamic behavior of automakers based on complex system theory

by Jinhuan Tang, Xinying Si, Qiong Wu, Xiangchen Li

"Prevent minor issues before they become major problems, and prepare for the future." This study utilizes complex system theory to introduce a nonlinear dynamic system for examining the production and emission reduction strategies of new energy vehicle (NEV) and gasoline vehicle (GV) manufacturers under the dual credit (DC) policy over a long-term game process. By considering production delays, we analyze dynamic behaviors within a duopoly automotive system, including stable regions, bifurcation, chaotic attractors, and the Largest Lyapunov exponent (LLE). The results show that: (1) As production and carbon emission adjustment parameters increase, the decision-making system for both automakers can slip into disorder, posing a risk of disruption within the automotive industry. (2) In stable regions, GVs’ carbon emission adjustments do not affect the production of either NEVs or GVs, while NEVs demonstrate greater flexibility in production adjustments compared to GVs. (3) The industry system will likely benefit from delay production decisions that could help stabilize the automobile market. The study provides theoretical support for the smooth transformation of old and new driving forces in the automobile industry.