Country voters at the Grammys have always been somewhat accepting of relative outsiders. Pop artists like Pink, Kelly Clarkson and Bebe Rexha have earned nominations in the country field, and Justin Bieber has won. This year Best Country Duo/Group Performance seems to be led by genre-hopping acts. Will the Academy lean into those, or will the country establishment prefer to stick with “their own”?
You can likely rule out three contenders here. Brothers Osborne are perennial nominees, with “Break Mine” being their 10th consecutive bid in the category. But they have only won once, and this song is not nearly as topical as their winning effort. Likewise, Dan + Shay are voter favorites, tied for the most wins in this category (three). But “Bigger Houses” was not a particularly big hit and may get lost in the shuffle. Kelsea Ballerini and Noah Kahan’s “Cowboys Cry Too” would probably come in third place here, as it was a moderate hit for Ballerini. That said, it was simply not as prominent as the other two songs here. Additionally, none of these above mentioned contenders received a nomination anywhere else, so their support is probably limited.
The real race here is between the two pop stars-turned-country interlopers: Post Malone and Beyoncé. Malone’s “I Had Some Help,” featuring Morgan Wallen, is easily the biggest hit here commercially, leading the Hot 100 for six weeks while also topping country radio for weeks on end. This is also a good place to reward Post for an overall great year, with his “F-1 Trillion” being one of the biggest country albums of the year, notching multiple country radio chart-toppers, debuting at No. 1 on the Billboard 200, and earning multiple nominations at the CMAs for “I Had Some Help,” albeit not winning anything there. This would also be Malone’s first Grammy win ever, and he’s overdue at this point. Plus, this award tends to go to the biggest hit, and the song getting into Best Country Song (and “F-1 Trillion” getting into Best Country Album) shows there’s a lot of support for it.
On the flip side, there’s Beyoncé and Miley Cyrus’ “II Most Wanted.” The “Cowboy Carter” hype could translate to victory; the album is nominated in five country/Americana categories, showing a lot of support for the era as a whole. Cyrus also had a good night at the last Grammy ceremony, winning Record of the Year for “Flowers,” so there might be continued support for her this year. Plus, voters may prefer the sentimental ballad over Malone and Wallen’s more pop-oriented sound.
That said, I think “I Had Some Help” probably has this in the bag. It was a big pop radio hit too, so it’s likely that pop voters who also vote in country will go for it. Plus, country voters are more familiar with Wallen (for better or worse) than they are with Beyoncé and Cyrus. Watch out for an upset, but the safe bet is Malone.
Will win: Post Malone feat. Morgan Wallen, “I Had Some Help”
Could win: Beyoncé and Miley Cyrus, “II Most Wanted”
Gold Derby odds say: Post Malone feat. Morgan Wallen, “I Had Some Help”
