COLUMBUS, Ohio (WCMH) -- Heading into its game against Michigan as the betting favorite, Ohio State looked set to face Oregon for the Big Ten championship and compete for the top spot in the College Football Playoff.
Instead, the Wolverines upset the Buckeyes 13-10 at Ohio Stadium, dropping them from second to seventh in the AP Top 25 and out of the running for the conference title.
In recent seasons, the loss would have pushed them out of the playoff picture. But the 12-team format that's beginning this year saves the Buckeyes as they look ahead at a more difficult path to become national champions.
The penultimate College Football Playoff rankings, which will be revealed Tuesday night, will give a sense of who Ohio State could play in the postseason and how conference championship weekend could shift its seeding.
The 12-team format gives four conference champions byes into the quarterfinal round. Ohio State's loss means it's now expected to play in the first round on Dec. 20-21.
Had Ohio State beaten Michigan, it would have guaranteed itself at least a home game in the first round even if it had lost the Big Ten championship game. Losing puts that possibility in doubt, and the rankings will give a sense of whether the Buckeyes will start the playoff at Ohio Stadium or on the road.
The teams seeded 5-8 will play first-round home games, and two of those spots look to be locked up. The loser of the Big Ten championship game between No. 1 Oregon and No. 3 Penn State is likely to get a first-round home game, as is No. 4 Notre Dame, which isn't part of any conference. A third spot could be taken if No. 2 Texas loses to No. 5 Georgia in the Southeastern Conference championship game.
No matter this weekend's results, Ohio State's seed should likely sit between 7 and 10.
Since the first playoff rankings were revealed on Nov. 5, the corresponding Associated Press poll released two days before has had identical brackets.
Using the AP rankings released Sunday, the Buckeyes would be seeded ninth and play a first-round game at No. 8 seed Tennessee, the sixth-ranked team in the Top 25. The winner would advance to a quarterfinal against the top-seeded team, projected as Oregon.
Being seeded anywhere in the 7-10 range means Ohio State would be looking at facing the first or second overall seed in the quarterfinal round. That top seed will likely go to Oregon, Texas or Penn State, and the second seed will likely go to Texas, Penn State or Georgia.
Every championship weekend raises the question: Can the results change the committee's outlook on teams that don't play? The answer is an emphatic yes.
Time and again in the playoff system, teams sitting on the sideline have been rewarded and punished depending on the results of the conference title games. In Ohio State's case, it was rewarded with a playoff spot in 2022 but missed out in 2023 after not getting to play for the Big Ten title.
Ohio State's resume would be helped if Penn State upsets Oregon since the Buckeyes defeated the Nittany Lions on the road in November. But its seeding could drop if SMU, Arizona State or Iowa State win conference title games.
