The F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix is shaping up to be an emotional weekend
58 laps. Four drivers. Two teams.
One champion.
After 23 race weekends could not decide matters, the 2024 Formula 1 Constructors’ Championship comes down to the final weekend of the season, the year-ending Abu Dhabi Grand Prix. McLaren entered last weekend with a chance to clinch the title at the Qatar Grand Prix and was in a position to do so midway through the main event on Sunday, but things unraveled when Lando Norris was given a ten-second, stop-and-go penalty for failing to slow under a double yellow flag.
That penalty dropped Norris from second to the back of the grid, and while the McLaren driver recovered to finish tenth, adding a bonus point for the fastest lap, the penalty also opened the door for Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc to finish second, keeping Ferrari alive for one last week.
As things stand, McLaren still holds the advantage, with 640 points on the year to 619 for Ferrari. The Woking-based team has more pathways to clinching the title this weekend, and we will work through all of those later this week, but the easiest way is this:
Win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix. If either Norris or Oscar Piastri wins on Sunday, then Ferrari cannot make up the gap between the two teams and McLaren will take the title.
As for Ferrari’s hopes, their easiest pathway is to lock out the front row with Leclerc and Carlos Sainz Jr., which would bring them to 662 points on the season. From there, they would need to hope McLaren cannot make up the 22-point gap, which they could with a P3 and a P4 from Piastri and Norris.
So, advantage McLaren heading into the final race of the season.
But as we have seen so many times before this season, anything can happen.
That tops the list of storylines for the 2024 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, but it is not the only one.
While the Drivers’ Championship has already been decided, with Max Verstappen clinching his fourth straight title at the Las Vegas Grand Prix, the battle for second behind him also heads to the final race of the season.
Similar to the fight for the Constructors’ Championship, this battle comes down to McLaren versus Ferrari, with Norris holding an eight-point advantage over Leclerc in the race for second. The McLaren driver has 349 points on the year, while Leclerc has 341.
If Norris finishes ahead of Leclerc, he will clinch second. For Leclerc to win, he’ll need to not just finish ahead of Norris, but outscore him by at least eight points, depending on results.
For example, should Leclerc win on Sunday that would put him on 366 points for the season. A second-place finish from Norris in this scenario would mean he finished the year with 366, but with the first tiebreaker being wins, that would give Leclerc four wins on the season, one more than Norris.
However, in that scenario Norris would still win the title if he picked up the bonus point for the fastest lap of the race, giving him 367 points to 366 for Leclerc.
We will take a deeper dive into the permutations on Wednesday, but this fight could also go down to the final laps.
Beyond the two fights at the sharp end of the grid, another fascinating battle is playing out in the midfield: The three-way fight for sixth between Alpine, Haas, and Visa Cash App RB F1 Team.
Just a few weeks ago this seemed to be a two-way fight for VCARB, but then Alpine delivered perhaps the biggest shock of the season when Esteban Ocon and Pierre Gasly finished on the podium in São Paulo. That finish, coupled with Gasly’s result in the F1 Sprint Race in Brazil earlier that weekend, rocketed Alpine into sixth place in the standings.
While Haas took that position back in Las Vegas, Gasly’s P5 in Qatar was enough to put Alpine back into sixth.
At the moment Alpine has a five-point advantage over Haas, 59 points to 54 points. VCARB is a bit further back, sitting on 46 points with one race remaining.
However, an interesting development has added a wrinkle to this three-way fight ...
Back in May at the Miami Grand Prix, I walked out of Alpine’s hospitality space after having lunch with Jack Doohan, the team’s reserve driver. Over our hour together, I became convinced that Doohan was going to earn a full-time spot on the grid sooner rather than later.
It turns out I was more correct than I thought.
While Alpine announced earlier this season that Doohan would be stepping into the seat vacated by Esteban Ocon, who is leaving at the end of the year to drive for Haas next season, that timeline has been pushed up.
To this week.
Alpine announced Monday that Doohan would be driving in Ocon’s place in the season finale, confirming rumors that were swirling throughout the paddock in Qatar. This allows Ocon to participate in the post-season test with his new team, Haas, following the race.
It also throws Doohan into the deep end, as he will be part of the above-described three-way fight for sixth in the Constructors’ Championship.
However, that same confidence I had in my mind when I walked out of Alpine’s hospitality space back in May remains, and something tells me Doohan will be up to the challenge.
It is time for an interlude from Hamilton.
Not only will the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix bring the curtain down on the 2024 F1 season, but it will also be the final chapter in a few different F1 stories.
Some drivers are simply moving to new teams, such as Ocon to Haas as outlined above. Nico Hülkenberg will be leaving Haas, as he moves to Sauber for the 2025 season. Then there is Carlos Sainz Jr., who will be headed to Williams in 2025.
Other drivers, however, are seeing their time in the sport enter a final act, at least as a full-time driver. Sauber’s Zhou Guanyu and Valtteri Bottas will drive in their final race for the team, with both linked to potential reserve roles next season.
Kevin Magnussen’s time with Haas — at least as a driver — will come to an end, and while it remains unclear where Magnussen will be next season, Haas Team Principal Ayao Komatsu indicated that he would be open to Magnussen serving with the team in some capacity.
Of course, there is another final ride that is worth mentioning, one that is deserving of its own section.
Abu Dhabi will also bring the curtain down on one of Formula 1’s greatest partnerships.
After 12 seasons, 84 wins, and six world championships, Lewis Hamilton is entering his final race weekend with Mercedes.
Hamilton stunned the F1 world ahead of the season, announcing that he would leave the team to join Ferrari for the 2025 season. That made the 2024 season an emotional one at Mercedes, perhaps punctuated by his storybook win at the British Grand Prix. That was his final race at Silverstone with Mercedes and a victory that snapped the longest drought of his racing career, as he had not won since Saudi Arabia back in 2021.
While this might not be the dream ending to this story Hamilton and Mercedes were hoping for, as the team sits fourth in the Constructors’ Championship and Hamilton seventh in the Drivers’ Championship, it is sure to be an emotional week for everyone involved.
It is Groundhog Day.
Again.
Stories about Sergio Pérez’s precarious position at Red Bull Racing are nothing new, but according to multiple outlets, this weekend will draw down his time with the team.
After securing four podiums in the first five races, Pérez has not finished in the top three in a grand prix since the Chinese Grand Prix back in April. His struggles this season contributed in large part to Red Bull missing out on the Constructors’ Championship, and with teammate Max Verstappen winning the Drivers’ Championship, Pérez sits 227 points behind Verstappen, the biggest gap between a Drivers’ Champion and their teammate under the current scoring format in F1 history.
Again, rumors of Pérez’s impending departure from Red Bull are nothing new, and the driver was adamant in the FIA Press Conference ahead of the Qatar Grand Prix that he would be back with Red Bull Racing in 2025.
But there is certainly a lot of smoke to these current rumors ...
