He was darn good.
The 2023 Royals starting pitching staff had a 5.12 ERA, fourth-worst in baseball. It was a revolving door of starters - 29 different pitchers made a start, although to be fair many were “openers.” Only three starters tossed at least 100 innings, and only one starter with 10+ starts posted an ERA below four - mid-season pickup Cole Ragans.
Rather than wait around and hope some young arms would turn the proverbial corner, management decided to invest in the rotation through free agency. That can always be a dicey proposition between arm injuries and the decline of players once they hit age 30. Kansas City has had its fair share of free agent pitchers that didn’t pan out from Storm Davis to Jeff Francis to Jason Hammel.
The Royals targeted Seth Lugo - a longtime reliever who they had actually pursued the previous off-season only to see him head to San Diego. He became a starter there and had a solid season with a 3.57 ERA in 26 starts, good for 2.9 fWAR. The Royals enticed him to come to Kansas City on a three-year, $45 million deal. It was a gamble to rely on a 34-year-old with such a short track record of starting, but it paid off in spades.
Lugo finished second in baseball in innings pitched (208.2), 19th in strikeouts (181), had the 13th-lowest walk rate (5.7 percent), and the 7th-lowest home run rate (0.70). Overall he was sixth among all pitchers in fWAR, and was runner-up to Tarik Skubal for the American League Cy Young Award. Out of all the big pitchers signed last off-season, he was by far the best.
*-in millions
According to Fangraphs, he has already been worth over $37 million, nearly the entire value of his three-year contract. Even if he regresses, which he surely will do this year - he will have been a great signing. His performance this year was one of the best starting pitching seasons in the first year of a free agent contract in the last decade.
Regression seems inevitable, but by how much? Lugo did pitch worse in the second half than he did in the first half, but his 3.84 ERA after the All-Star break is still very acceptable, and he had a 2.28 ERA in the month of September.
Lugo succeeds by having a very deep arsenal that keeps hitters guessing. He’s one of just three pitchers last year who threw at least eight different pitches (pitching coach Brian Sweeney claims Lugo throws over ten). And they’re all pretty effective. Only two pitches had an opponent’s average over .250 - his sweeper and sinker. His fastball seems wholly unimpressive at 92 mph, but it was the 16th-most effective heater among starters. His slider, cutter, and curve all rank among the best in baseball.
Lugo seems to lull opposing hitters into submission with his accountant looks and workmanlike attitude. He pounds the strike zone but still fools hitters. He had the seventh-highest rate of called strikes in baseball. When they do put the ball in play, Lugo is inducing weak contact - he had the 20th-lowest hard-hit rate. He also had the 21st-highest ground ball right, a smart strategy when you have one of the best defensive infields in baseball behind you - it also helps that he himself is a Gold Glove winner.
Lugo just turned 35 a few weeks ago, and he has increased his innings pitched totals in each of the last five seasons. There have been a wave of reliever-turned-starters in baseball with Reynaldo López, Jordan Hicks, and Zack Littell making the transition in recent seasons. In recent history, Derek Lowe, Braden Looper, and CJ Wilson all made the transition later in their career and had a few productive seasons as starters. Lugo may not be able to replicate his amazing 2024 season, but with his arsenal and intelligent approach to pitching, he has a terrific chance of being a productive pitcher the next two seasons.
