Photograph by Nathaniel St. Clair
The state of peoples’ economic conditions is one reason provided for why Harris lost. Many people are hurting financially from the higher costs for groceries, housing, medical care, and other basic needs.
There is an official rate of inflation. There is also an individual rate of inflation. The country can have an inflation rate of under 3%. In filling their needs, many individuals may be experiencing a much higher rate of inflation.[1] Even if the growth in their income outstrips the official rate of inflation, they can be worse off economically than they were in an earlier time.
The table below, derived from the Census Bureau publication “Income in the United States: 2023” (page 34), places all households into groups of 20% (quintiles) from the 20% of the population with the lowest to the 20% with the highest average income. It covers selected years in 2023 inflation adjusted dollars.
The figures show that as of 2023, the average household in all quintiles, after three years of Biden’s presidency and despite the low rate of unemployment, had average incomes with a lower purchasing power than in 2019, the year before the pandemic. This lower average income has presumably had a harsher impact on those with the lowest incomes. Of all the quintiles, those in the lowest quintile have an average income in 2023 that is the furthest behind, by 2.3%, from where it stood in 2019. All the other quintiles are behind about 1% except the fourth highest at 1.4%.
The table also indicates that for the first three years of the Trump regime, the average income of each quintile grew every year before declining in 2020, the first year of the pandemic. However, the increases and decline in 2020 were more favorable for those with the highest incomes. During the first three years, those in the highest quintile and top 5% experienced percentage and dollar increases greater than those in all other quintiles. In 2020, those households in the lowest quintile experienced a decline from 2019 to 2020 of 5%. By contrast, the decline for all other quintiles was lower with the decline for those in the highest quintile being just slightly over 1%.
The Two Previous Democrats in the White House
2007, the year before the Great Recession, is included to show that the record during Obama’s presidency, as of 2016, was not much different for those in the lowest quintile. After eight years of “hope and change,” those in the lowest quintile had an average inflation adjusted household income that was lower in 2016 than it had been in 2007 before the Great Recession. Change during eight years of Obama for those in the lowest quintile, perhaps, resulted in greater despair instead of hope.
For those in the second lowest quintile, as of 2016, their income during Obama’s time as president was up $1,240, less than 3% from where it stood in 2007. By contrast, those in the highest quintile experienced an 11.9% increase, and those in the top 5% had average inflation adjusted incomes in 2016 up $60,000 or 14.7% from 2007. The average increase for those in the top 5% alone is greater than the combined average total income of the lowest two quintiles made up of predominantly working-class folks.
During Clinton’s eight years, using figures from the same Census Bureau table, the income of the lowest quintile in 2023 inflation adjusted dollars went from $14,560 in 1992 to $16,940 in 2000 for a 16% increase. The second lowest quintile also saw gains going from $36,470 in 1992 to $42,290 in 2000, also a 16% increase. Those in the highest quintile experienced an increase of 29.8% and those in the top 5% had an increase of 45% rising from $290,100 in 1992 to $420,900 in 2000. Their income went from being almost 20 times greater than those in the lowest quintile to nearly 25 times greater. And the top 5%’s average income compared to the second lowest quintile went from being 7.95 times as great to close to 10 times greater (9.95 times).
In recent years, when the Democrats have held the presidency, those with the lowest incomes have fallen further behind the more well to do. And during the first three years of Biden, to which Harris is closely associated, again, every household quintile experienced a decline in their real incomes. This may help to account for why millions of people who voted for Biden in 2020 did not bother to vote for Harris in 2024.
Notes.
1. My household’s California Pacific Gas and Electric bill in 2020 came to $1,695. In 2023, it was $2,583, increasing by over 52%. The quantity of gas we used in 2023 was down 3% from 2020 while the electricity consumed was up 13%. Even taking the usage changes into account, the increase was far above the official rate of inflation for those years. Presumably, there have been similar price increases for some of the costs of food. The same carton of orange juice that was $2.99 at Trader Joes before the pandemic is now 66% higher at $4.99.
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