The standoff portion of the offseason is well underway. The official opening of free agency was weeks ago, however, we have yet to see much movement. As is the case every year, outside the presence of a lockout scare in 2021-22, the MLB offseason is always slow moving.
Given how slow moving it has been, we have yet to see the New York Mets really address any of their needs yet. Near the top of this list should be bullpen help. As it stands, the Mets only have three established and likely locked in arms to their Opening Day roster. Those being Edwin Díaz, Reed Garrett, and Dedniel Núñez. President of baseball operations David Stearns has work to do.
A few weeks ago, we analyzed some cost effective left-handed bullpen options the Mets may want to focus on. Especially given their desire to make a splash in free agency, anytime you can get good play on good value, it is great business. How about a couple right-handed arms that should excel and come a at a favorable price?
Mets fans will remember Austin Voth from his tumultuous five-year tenure with the Washington Nationals. After posting a 5.70 ERA with the Nationals, Voth was designated for assignment (DFA) and picked up by the Orioles where it seemed like he revived his career in 2022.
In 2022, Voth tossed 83 innings and posted a very strong 3.04 ERA. The underlying metrics did indicate, however, the right-handed arm did get the benefit of a lot of good luck, as his 4.40 xERA and 3.96 FIP were both much higher than his 3.04 actual ERA mark. Well, all that good luck dissipated in 2023, as his ERA shot up to 5.19 across 34 2/3 innings, resulting in another DFA and ultimately free agency for the now 32-year-old.
In 2024, with his major-league life on the line, Voth rekindled that 2022 magic, however, there was nothing lucky about it. Voth posted a 3.69 ERA and a career-best 3.14 xERA. Across 61 innings, Voth posted near career-bests in strikeout rate, walk rate, and home runs allowed rate. When taking a deeper dive into the peripheral statistics, the right-handed pitcher did just about everything well. He induced a ton of soft contact (98th percentile average exit velocity, 99th hard-hit rate) while getting a lot of whiffs (89th percentile) and chases (79th percentile).
So, why the breakout all of a sudden after years of struggle and extremely poor peripheral statistics? The main difference between Voth’s 2023 and 2024 seasons is the emergence of his cutter as his main pitch over the four-seam fastball which it was previously was for years. In 2024, Voth threw his cutter 33.8% of the time, compared to only 11.2% in 2023. He also varied pitches much more, as in 2024, he threw three pitches between 24% and 34% of the time.
Voth’s price tag in 2025 will be very cheap. If he replicates his 2024 performances at the price he will likely command, he will be one of the more valuable releivers in baseball.
The 31-year-old Scott Barlow had two back-to-back elite seasons in 2021 and 2022, before some surface regression the last two seasons. Over that two-year period, Barlow as one of the best bullpen arms in the league, posting ERAs of 2.42 and 2.18, respectively, over 74 1/3 innings in each season. However, that ERA figure ballooned to 4.37 in 2023 and 4.25 in 2024, respectively. A deeper dive into those seasons show some encouraging developments, however.
When looking at the peripherals, Barlow was still inducing extremely soft contact (95th percentile average exit velocity in 2024 and 96th percentile average exit velocity in 2023) while also inducing whiffs (84th percentile or higher in 2023 and 2024) and a ton of strikeouts. Each aspects that allowed him to breakout in his two best seasons in 2021 and 2022. The main differences, however, has been an increased walk rate and in 2024, specifically, a lower chase rate.
In 2021, Barlow’s walk rate was 9.1%, before dropping to 7.6% in 2022. However, that number sky rocketed in 2023 and 2024 to 11.4% and 12.9%, respectively. The rest of Barlows game has been in the last two seasons, the only aspect that has been lacking, and has been instrumental in his overall regression, is the inability to throw strikes.
If Barlow is able to tone back those control issues, he should be much closer to his elite 2021 and 2022 seasons in 2025. That is a bet, at the likely lower price tag, teams should look to make. Especially the Mets.
The post A Couple Cost Effective, Right-Handed Reliever Free Agent Options appeared first on Metsmerized Online.
