The defense was there, but the offense wasn’t down the stretch.
While the Golden State Warriors may have come into their game against the Oklahoma City Thunder undefeated without Stephen Curry playing a single minute, the numbers with him off the floor have told a quite telling — and all too familiar — story.
In 783 non-garbage time possessions, the Warriors have scored a measly 105.7 points per 100 possessions without Curry on the floor. That would be the equivalent of the 28th ranked offense in the NBA, per Cleaning The Glass. This has been a testament to the problem they have had since time immemorial: the lack of a serviceable scorer behind Curry to act as a ballast whenever he’s on the bench, or more importantly whenever he has to miss games.
That story was no different tonight against the Thunder — which meant that the only way the Warriors had a shot of winning against such an elite team with an elite defense (first in the league in opponent points per 100 possessions) and an elite shot creator in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was to lock down in the half court and generate plenty of transition possessions. That was proving to be a tough task to start the game, where in the first quarter the Thunder were able to hang 39 points to the Warriors’ 23. Those 39 points allowed translated to a ghastly 150 points per 100 possessions.
The good news is that after allowing 39 points in the first quarter, the Warriors were able to hold the Thunder to just 66 points in the subsequent three quarters. They were able to trim down the points allowed per 100 possessions figure to 104 points per 100 possessions by the end of the game — equivalent to the best defense in the league (tied with the Thunder’s own points allowed per 100 possessions figure this season). A switch was flipped on the defensive end in the form of diversified coverages, increased energy, and a sense of urgency fueled perhaps by the loss of their superstar.
This possession below at the 8:26 mark of the third quarter seemed otherwise nondescript, but the tenor of the Warriors’ defense in the second half changed with Jerry Stackhouse throwing a changeup: full-court ball pressure flowing into a 2-3 zone in the half court:
Stackhouse pushed the right buttons and his players responded with effort and execution after two games where their defense fell apart in the second halves. This was perhaps most evident in how they defended in scramble situations where they had to be in rotation. The Thunder — good for moving the ball around and creating good looks for everyone on the floor — saw their windows being shut down near instantaneously:
The golden equation for the Warriors this season — especially with this version without Curry — was to get stops, run in transition, and create offense against a non-set defense, one that has had plenty of success this season whenever they do get set in the half court (84.8 points allowed per 100 half-court possessions). One easy way to take that metric out of the equation is to simply not have them defend in the half court as much as possible:
It also helps massively if they manage to get the best version of Draymond Green on the defensive end. Green’s value comes not only in being a roamer and communicator on the floor — his ability to play multiple coverages, diagnose which one needs to be played at a given moment, and execute accordingly is second to none. The more engaged and effective he is as a defender, the more likely that the rest of the defensive machinery follows his lead:
However — and this is where the bad news comes in — the Warriors were held to just scoring 103.1 points per 100 possessions in the entire game, no doubt fueled by the absence of Curry and the lack of a consistent secondary scorer who could create buckets (for himself and for teammates) without much schematic help. While Andrew Wiggins and Jonathan Kuminga can most certainly fill that role through their ability to put pressure on the rim, shortcomings (e.g., their lack of a reliable handle) prevent them from ever fulfilling that role to the highest degree.
Kerr has had to help them get to the rim by creating downhill situations for them. For Wiggins, it was all about getting him into motion off the ball in order to create an attacking lane:
For Kuminga, it was creating situations for him where defenses are confused with what coverage they want to play. An inverted pick-and-roll creates hesitation for Gilgeous-Alexander, who doesn’t want to switch onto Kuminga. This allows Kuminga to attack the rim with an open lane:
However, such instances weren’t enough to provide the Warriors with the requisite juice they needed to put the Thunder away. They went scoreless from the 5:45 mark of the fourth quarter till the 20 second mark — all while the Thunder, who couldn’t score much themselves, were able to make use of Gilgeous-Alexander’s shot making talents to spell the difference.
While the defensive silver lining is something to be optimistic about — and while Curry won’t be out for too long, given that he’s expected to play against the Phoenix Suns on Saturday — the Warriors will need to address the problem of not having someone who can create scoring opportunities in a pinch beyond Curry. At 36 years old and probably having more of these sit-out situations due to aches and pains, Curry can’t curry the scoring burden all by his lonesome. For the Warriors to reach that next level, they’ll need someone who can level defenses without much need for a schematic crutch.
