Rep. Michelle Steel (R-Calif.) has conceded defeat in her reelection bid against Democrat Derek Tran to represent California’s 45th Congressional District.
Steel’s race is one of two that Decision Desk HQ, which partners with The Hill, hasn’t called yet, but Tran declared victory Monday. The apparent win for Tran is a flip for Democrats that will keep the Republican House majority at no more than a few seats.
Tran currently leads Steel by just more than 600 votes out of more than 315,000 cast.
“The journey to work on behalf of legal immigrants and struggling families took me somewhere I never could have imagined – and for which I will always be grateful — the United States Congress,” Steel said Wednesday in a statement posted on social platform X. “Everything is God’s will and, like all journeys, this one is ending for a new one to begin.”
She thanked her supporters, staff and family and vowed she would “never stop fighting” for them.
Tran said in his statement that, as the son of Vietnamese refugees, he understands the “journey and sacrifices” that many in his district have made.
“From the need for affordable healthcare and housing to the importance of an economy that includes everyone, people here are looking to the future with hope and determination,” he said. “I look forward to representing that optimism and working tirelessly to ensure that our communities’ voices are heard in Washington.”
The conclusion of the 45th District race leaves only California’s 13th District election between Rep. John Duarte (R) and Democrat Adam Gray as uncalled.
Gray, a former state Assembly member, narrowly leads Duarte, which would be a massive flip for the Democrats, though the race remains very close with ballots still being counted three weeks after election day. With 99.4 percent of the vote in, Gray led Duarte by 182 votes — or 0.1 percentage points.
The race in the district, which includes the San Joaquin Valley, has been back-and-forth since Election Day, with the two candidates trading the lead.
The contest in California’s 13th Congressional District has been one of the most closely watched elections this cycle, with Democrats hoping to oust Duarte after the area broke for President Biden by 10.9 percentage points in 2020. Cook Political Report rated this year’s race a “toss up.”
The outcome of the race in California's 13th will determine just how slim the GOP's House majority is. Republicans have been projected to win 220 seats in the House so far, while Democrats have been projected to win at least 213, with the two California races uncalled. But the GOP edge is poised to narrow early next year as some lawmakers depart the House to serve in President-elect Trump’s Cabinet.
Rep. Mike Waltz (R-Fla.) is resigning on Jan. 20 to become national security adviser, Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) is expected to leave the House early next year after Trump nominated her to be U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, and former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) said he will not take the oath of office for the 119th Congress after being nominated for attorney general, then withdrawing his name from consideration.
With Tran's victory, if Gray maintains his slight lead in California's 13th Congressional District and is declared the winner — and if the three seats held by Walz, Stefanik and Gaetz remain vacant at the same time — the GOP’s majority in the House will be 217-215, meaning they cannot lose any members on party-line votes. A tie vote in the House fails.
