Namibia’s election on 27 November is shaping up to be one of the most fiercely contested in its history and, for the first time, it could lead to a second round of voting. The election would determine whether Swapo, in power since independence in 1990, retains its dominance or becomes another former liberation movement to lose its grip on power.
In The Conversation earlier this month, Henning Melber, a Swapo member and an extraordinary pProfessor of political science at the University of Pretoria, wrote: “Swapo might face defeat for the first time since independence in 1990.”
He notes that in the 2019 elections, Hage Geingob was re-elected president with the worst result ever for Swapo, only 56%. This is down from 87% in 2014. His erstwhile Swapo comrade, Panduleni Itula, running for president as an independent, amassed 30% of the vote.
Now, “Swapo faces a new quality of opposition” in Itula, who founded the Independent Patriots for Change (IPC) after being expelled from Swapo in 2020. Swapo’s downward trend was confirmed by a decline in support in the 2020 regional and local elections, and for the first time, a clear victory for Swapo seems less certain, notes Melber.
Socioeconomic discontent is further eroding Swapo’s base. Graham Hopwood, the executive director of the Institute for Public Policy Research in Windhoek, notes that there are indications that much of the urban youth vote is frustrated with the ruling party, and their participation in this election could have a strong influence on the outcome.
Hopwood believes high youth unemployment, nearly 50% in 2018, will be the key factor driving young people, especially the urban youth, away from Swapo.
Corruption allegations may have also tarnished Swapo’s reputation, especially since the Fishrot Scandal in November 2019, when several government officials were arrested for allegedly accepting bribes to redirect the country’s fishing quota to an Icelandic fishing company.
Opposition parties such as The Landless People’s Movement and the Popular Democratic Movement may also eat into Swapo’s vote share, having obtained roughly 6.8% of the vote each in the 2020 municipal elections.
Despite these difficulties, Swapo is not entirely out of the running. Fitch Solutions, a political risks organisation, expects in their core scenario (50% probability) that Swapo will retain its majority in the National Assembly while its candidate, Vice-president Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah, will win the presidential race. They cite an Afrobarometer survey released in June 2024 showing that 57% of respondents do not mind if the same party (Swapo) continues to govern the country, while 39% believe that power should change hands sometimes.
Namibia’s 2024 presidential election is bound to be a tight contest — a win will not come easily. Swapo is less likely to win an outright majority, opposition or independent candidates are unlikely to pass the 50% threshold to win in the first round because of the large number of contenders, and Namibia may face its first-ever run-off election.
Namibia’s president is directly elected by a 50% + 1 vote from the electorate. A run-off occurs when no candidate gets more than 50% of the vote in the first round — the two candidates with the highest number of votes (very likely Nandi-Ndaitwah and Itula) go into a second round of voting until one of them gets a clear majority.
Swapo’s waning grip on power, marked by years of declining support, makes a run-off plausible. This reflects a broader pattern across Southern Africa, where liberation parties struggle to maintain dominance amid fading memories and growing dissatisfaction, particularly among younger voters — the “born free” voters — with no experience of the liberation struggle and who are eager for change.
Tough election year for Southern African liberation parties
The once-dominant liberation parties of Southern Africa are having a terrible election year, a trend that began with the MPLA falling out of favour in Angola’s 2022 election but still edging out Unita by a small margin.
In South Africa’s general elections in May, the ANC fell below 50% of the vote for the first time since the end of apartheid in 1994 and was forced to form a government of national unity with other parties.
Just last month, the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP), which had been in office since independence from Britain in 1966, was defeated in the general elections. It fell from 38 seats to four and came only fourth in parliamentary seat numbers, conceding power to the Umbrella for Democratic Change.
In the same month, the national electoral authority declared an overwhelming victory for Frelimo and its presidential candidate, Daniel Chapo, after Mozambique’s general elections. But the opposition said the results were rigged, declaring the opposition candidate Venâncio Mondlane the winner.
Some independent observers, including the Episcopal Conference of Mozambique and the European Union, also reported evidence of rigging while Mondlane unleashed a cascade of protests that security forces violently dispersed, shooting more than 30 people. Frelimo’s fate remains uncertain — opposition supporters continue to demand that the government leave power amid violent protests. Even if the party remains in power, its legitimacy and authority may continue to be questioned.
Now, general elections approach in Namibia, and predictions are divided: the ruling Swapo could lose its absolute majority, following the path of the ANC or the BDP, or, less likely, Frelimo — although Swapo is very likely to retain its parliamentary dominance.
Alternatively, Swapo may secure the presidency, but it will be a hard-fought contest, with its support likely to further erode. Whatever the outcome, Namibia’s election this month is set to be a fiercely contested battle and may well result in a second round of voting.
Nnaemeka Ohamadike is a senior data analyst at Good Governance Africa.
