Most of them will not stick. Some of them will.
When Kyle Dubas accepted the Pittsburgh Penguins job he had to know he was in for a challenge.
He was inheriting a franchise with a depleted farm system, almost no young players on the NHL roster and trying to strike a delicate balance between still maximizing what is left of the careers of Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang, while also trying to put together a plan for ushering in an era of Penguins hockey for when that trio retires.
The early returns on his job so far have been mixed.
There were some good moves on paper that have not worked out.
Reilly Smith seemed like a low-risk move that should have upgraded the top-six. It didn’t work as expected (though, I don’t know that Smith was necessarily bad — he just reverted back to some of the down years he has had in the past).
Trading all of their bad contracts and bad players for Erik Karlsson was a huge home run swing for the fences, and even though it has not worked as planned I refuse to criticize the effort or the move itself. Hell, it actually lowered their salary cap number in the short-term (when it mattered most for a team that was still trying to win a year ago) even if Karlsson’s contract might be ugly in the coming years. At that point, does it really matter with the way things are trending here with the team as a whole? Eat some money if you have to when you trade it.
I think my bigger concern is that some of the blind spots that Dubas had in Toronto that maybe held the Maple Leafs back are showing themselves here. Too many grinders and pluggers for the depth forwards and not enough of a priority on offense. Goaltending issues. The fact that a lot of the players he has acquired just have not been good. As I said last week, if he is not identifying talent now, why should I believe he will figure it out and get it right in the future when it will matter more?
Having said that, there is one thing that I do like about his approach right now, and it is his willingness to take some fliers on young, talented players that have not quite worked out with their previous teams (for whatever reason).
Rutger McGroarty’s issue in Winnipeg wasn’t anything to do with his talent, but the fact he did not want to sign with the Jets. But he became available, Dubas saw an opportunity to add a potential top-line player into the organization, and he took it.
I also like Monday’s trade for Philip Tomasino from the Nashville Predators.
A recent first-round pick that still has some untapped potential that maybe needs a fresh start and a change of scenery.
A lot of it might depend on how much Mike Sullivan uses him or what sort of role he gives him. If he just gets buried at the bottom of the lineup and plays 10 minutes a night it’s probably not going to work. But I would at least rather see somebody like that play than some of the washed veterans that are filling the lineup on a nightly basis and providing absolutely zero juice or long-term hope.
Another interesting name that has come into the rumor mill is Columbus Blue Jackets defenseman David Jiricek. Frank Seravalli and Rob Rossi have both mentioned the Penguins’ interest in Jiricek, and it’s definitely an intriguing name to see connected to the Penguins. He was a top-six pick just a couple of years ago, but Columbus seems determined to trade him sooner than later following his displeasure with his role within the organization.
The Penguins should be interested.
Here’s the thing about guys like McGroarty, Tomasino and Jiricek. Not all of them are going to pan out. In most cases, there is a reason their team is trading them. But sometimes you are going to catch lightning in a bottle and a new spot and a new opportunity is going to help things click for them. Or just simply getting an opportunity.
The Penguins are in a position where they do not really have a lot of trade chips where they can land legitimate, high-end prospects. Not only because they do not have a lot of tradable assets with that sort of value, but also because other teams simply do not like to trade the can’t-miss guys (or at least the high-end guys).
Given the lack of high-end prospects in the system, and give the lack of talent at the NHL level, it doesn’t hurt to roll the dice a couple of times, throw a bunch of stuff against the wall, and see who or what sticks.
Dubas has collected a ton of picks in rounds two through five over the next few years, and that gives you some flexibility and some options. Given the success rate of those picks you are not likely to land an impact player with any one of then. The best approach is to collect as many of them as you can and hope the odds eventually work out in your favor. But it also gives you some opportunity to flip a couple of them for some lottery tickets like Tomasino.
I would apply the same mindset to some of the prospects that have been already been added into the organization in recent years. If you can flip one of them for a similar prospect at a different position, or perhaps put together a package that nets you a better prospect (like the McGroarty situation), then you should be open to it.
Some will not work.
Some might.
Most of the second through fifth picks will not, and the same is true for a lot of the prospects already in your system.
This is the perfect situation to give them a chance to find out.
Bring me Rutger McGroary. Bring me Philip Tomasino. Bring me David Jiricek. Bring me everybody that fits that same mold and see who can play.
