HALIFAX, Nova Scotia — Canada’s military chief is working to soften the expected blowback from President-elect Trump’s return to office, with Canada trailing the majority of NATO allies in reaching the targeted 2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) for defense spending.
NATO allies not spending enough on defense is a major feature of Trump’s criticism of the alliance, slamming those countries as being in “default,” threatening to withhold U.S. commitments to mutual defense and taking credit for getting members to speed up their spending during his first term.
“Clearly the United States wants Canada and needs Canada to do more, our answer is yes. I’m in complete agreement, we need to do more,” Canada’s minister of defense, Bill Blair, said in an interview with The Hill on the sidelines of the Halifax International Security Forum over the weekend.
“We used to figure — there’s not going to be an amphibious landing in Canada, in all likelihood, or a tank battle in Saskatchewan. We used to think it would be bombers coming over the pole,” he said.
“But now it’s cruise and hypersonic missiles and ballistic missiles and there are other forms of conflict: cyberattacks, challenges with space, attacks on critical infrastructure all of which means, we recognize we have to do more here at home.”
Canada is on track to reach 1.76 percent of GDP on defense spending by 2030, a policy that U.S. lawmakers have criticized in no uncertain terms as unacceptable.
This includes Rep. Mike Turner (R-Ohio), chair of the House Intelligence Committee, who called Canada’s failure to reach 2 percent “the greatest threat to NATO” and cast Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s leadership as arrogant on the issue.
Blair called those statements “unfair,” and he and other Canadian policymakers were well aware that they need to ramp up spending faster.
“What I have discovered, and even conversations I had with the congressional delegations here — they had been very clear to me, as they were last year, and they have been for some time — that they have an expectation that Canada is going to spend a lot more money on defense,” he continued.
“We know we have to do that, and we are going to do that, but I could use some help in doing that.”
Blair said that help includes navigating the bureaucracy in Washington to invest tens of billions of additional dollars in made-in-America military equipment, which will require approval from Congress.
“And I said I need some help navigating that because I want to go fast, and this all takes time. I also want to be efficient, and it also costs money.”
While Trudeau committed earlier this year that Canada would reach 2 percent spending on defense by 2032, Sen. Jim Risch (R-Idaho), the incoming chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, warned that Trump would respond with a big “guffaw” to that timeline.
“Canada will say, 'Well, we’re working on this. … We’re kind of looking at 2032.' I don’t speak for the president-elect of the United States — but if he were in this room, you would get a very large guffaw from him on talking about 2032,” he said on a panel at the Halifax Forum.
After Risch met with the defense minister over the weekend, he said that any disagreements are “de minimis,” and spoke in favor of Canada’s commitment to getting to 2 percent.
“We discussed the timeline for that happening, and I can tell you that they're in full agreement that they want to get there as quickly as they can,” he said.
And Canadian officials are hopeful about reestablishing a working relationship with Trump and his administration.
They note that Trump announced his nominee for U.S. ambassador to Canada — former Michigan Rep. Pete Hoekstra — as one of his first foreign envoys, signaling the administration’s priorities. Trump’s choice of experienced national security figures, such as Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) for secretary of State and Rep. Mike Waltz (R-Fla.) for national security adviser, is adding to the optimism.
More controversial is Trump’s nomination of Pete Hegseth for secretary of Defense and his opposition to women serving in combat. Conversations about his divisive remarks drew pushback at the Halifax forum from the chief of Canada’s armed forces, Gen. Jennie Carignan, the first woman to hold the position.
“After 39 years of career as a combat arms officer and risking my life in many operations across the world, I can’t believe that in 2024 we still have to justify the contribution of women to their defense and to their service in their country,” she said.
Blair, in particular, has focused on efforts to recruit more women and minorities into Canada’s armed forces, warning the military faces a “death spiral” over recruitment and retention issues.
“Our militaries are more effective when women are meaningfully involved at all stages of planning and in carrying out missions,” Blair said during an event acknowledging 13 women officers from 10 NATO countries participating in the conference’s Peace With Women Fellowship.
“In each of your commands you've demonstrated the very best that our countries have to offer.”
Blair is one of a few high-level Canadian officials that also served during the first Trump administration, serving as minister of public safety at the time and coordinating with the U.S. Department of Homeland Security.
That period of U.S.-Canada relations was tested by Trump's personal attacks on Trudeau; high-stakes negotiations to develop the North American free trade agreement; and the COVID-19 pandemic upending travel and commerce across the U.S.-Canadian border, where 400,000 crossings can occur daily.
"I worked with the Trump administration in the previous Trump administration, we worked very well together," he said.
“Canada understands it has to do more on defense. We are going to make those investments.”
