The Rap-Up: Are the Raptors homesick?

With 3 more games on the road trip, can the Raptors end the distinction of being the last team without a road win?

My children love — and not love — when we go on vacation.

Don’t get me wrong. They’re not spoiled brats. While my wife and I sit on the 90/10 split on the love/not love portion of vacationing (planning and packing can be a drag sometimes), my kids are in the 75/25 range. We all love exploring new places and experiencing what the world has to offer.

At a certain point, though, the kids start complaining that they miss something from home. Maybe it’s the dog. Maybe it’s their bed. Maybe it’s having privacy after sharing a room with a snoring father. Regardless of the complaint, there’s a point during the vacation when the prospect of going home appears more enticing than another trip to the beach!

The comparison here is not that the Raptors are like my children. Sure, I’m older than every player, but that’s not the point. Toronto has the longest road losing streak in the NBA — 12 games — which dates back to last season. Do the Raptors miss the home cooking that only Toronto can provide? Is quieting an opponent’s home crowd less motivating than the deafening roar inside Scotiabank Arena?

The current 4-game road trip started with a loss in Cleveland. Suffering a loss to a team that had only lost once in the team’s first 17 games isn’t much of a surprise. The surprise will be if the Raptors are held winless in the final 3 road games, as they’re all winnable and the team might be getting healthier.

Maybe a trip to Toronto’s second home, or a visit to a team with a worse injury list than Toronto, or a game in the Sunshine State can help the Raptors get over the road blues!

November 25 @ Detroit Pistons

Detroit entered the All-Star break last season with 8 wins. The Pistons enter this game with a chance to equal that win total. It’s November 25th!

An overhauled roster and JB Bickerstaff have turned this perpetual lottery team into a playoff hopeful. (And I’m not only talking about the NBA Cup, where Detroit is currently 2-0)

Dare I say.....could this actually be a home game for the Pistons?!? Detroit may be an upstart team with playoff dreams, but the Raptors have proven they are better than their record indicates. If anything, more Raptors fans may show up to Little Caesar’s Arena because Scotiabank Arena still has soaring ticket prices, despite management’s acknowledgement that this is a rebuilding season.

Fun fact that may only interest me

The last time the Pistons won a playoff game was May 26, 2008.

Detroit’s 5th overall pick from the 2024 draft, Ron Holland, was only 2 years old.

Current Pistons Assistant Coach, Jarrett Jack, had just completed his third season as a player and had not yet played for the Raptors. Another Pistons Assistant Coach, Luke Walton, had yet to win one of his two championships with the Lakers.

It’s been a while for Pistons fans to get excited over a team!

Prediction

Including Detroit’s 99-95 victory in Toronto on November 15th, the Pistons have 4 wins against 50 losses in games where they scored less than 100 points over the last 3+ seasons.

The Pistons offer an interesting problem. The two areas where Toronto really excels — 1st in offensive rebounding percentage and 3rd in rim frequency — are the same areas Detroit thrives — 6th in offensive rebounding percentage allowed and 4th in defensive rim accuracy.

I think Scottie Barnes will be extra motivated to upstage Cade Cunningham and the Raptors will cover the +5.5 spread.

November 27 @ New Orleans Pelicans

Hey, look at that.....a team with a record a bad as the Raptors!

Zion Williamson, CJ McCollum, Dejounte Murray, Herb Jones, and Jose Alvarado. No, that is not the starting 5. That’s the list of injured Pelicans that missed New Orleans’ last game.

It’s been a calamity of injuries for Willie Green’s roster. Here is a list of the top 5 Pelicans, in terms of total minutes played:

1. Brandon Ingram
2. Brandon Boston
3. Javonte Green
4. Yves Missi
5. Jeremiah Robinson-Earl

Slow clap to you if you knew any of the names after Ingram would be on that list.

Fun fact that may only interest me

$101,669,859.

Over $100 million dollars in salary for Williamson, McCollum, and Murray next season. They have combined to play 11 games this season.

Robinson-Earl has played more minutes (354) than all 3 of them combined (353).

Prediction

New Orleans’ unfortunate circumstances cannot fully be blamed on untimely injuries. McCollum, Ingram, Williamson, and Jones were all healthy when they lost in Portland. The Pelicans have actually lost to Portland twice this season, as well as a loss to

The Pelicans are horrendous at protecting the offensive glass (28th in opponents’ offensive rebounding percentage) and just as bad in transition defense (29th in points allowed per transition possession). Toronto covers the +4.5 spread.

November 29 @ Miami Heat; December 1 vs Miami Heat

As far as fandoms go, I don’t think there’s a better team to root for than the Heat. Boston, Philadelphia, New York, and Milwaukee all entered the season with varying degrees of ‘championship-or-else’ pressure. Orlando, Indiana, and Cleveland were expected to make the playoffs but not expected to make much noise.

Then there’s Miami.

After trading for Jimmy Butler in July 2019, this is what the Heat have accomplished:

2020: Finished 5th in the regular season; lost to the Los Angeles Lakers in the NBA Finals

2021: Finished 6th in the regular season; lost in the first round to the eventual champions, Milwaukee Bucks

2022: Finished 1st in the regular season; lost to the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals

2023: Finished 7th in the regular season; lost to the Denver Nuggets in the NBA Finals

2024: Finished 8th in the regular season; lost in the first round to the eventual champions, Boston Celtics, and were without Butler

To recap, the Heat finished with the best record in the East once, made it all the way to the Finals twice despite not having home-court advantage in any of the series, and lost to the eventual champions in the other two seasons.

Imagine not worrying about the regular season because you know you have Erik Spoelstra and Jimmy Butler: the best coach and one of the best playoff performers in the league. It doesn’t hurt that Bam Adebayo is a top-5 Center and Tyler Herro is one of only 10 players in the league averaging at least 23 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists!

Fun fact that may only interest me

Pelle Larsson is already 3rd in all-time scoring among players born in Sweden.

Sure, there are only 4 players in NBA history born in the country that blessed us with IKEA, but as long as he’s playing in Miami, Larsson will have an opportunity to be the best the country’s ever produced.

At 5.9 points per game, he is just behind Jeff Taylor (6.1 points per game over 3 seasons) and Jonas Jerebko (6.2 points per game over 9 seasons) — whose final NBA game was Game 6 of the 2019 NBA Finals against the Toronto Raptors.

Prediction

Miami does not turn the ball over much (5th in turnover rate), is slightly above average in opponents’ offensive rebounding percentage (12th), and is excellent at not fouling (4th in fouls committed and 5th in opponents’ free-throw rate). In other words, Toronto will be hard-pressed to generate transition opportunities, create second chances when they crash the glass, or get points from the charity stripe.

Miami covers the -6.5 spread at home, while Toronto returns the favour by covering the +1.5 spread on Sunday. There’s something in that home cooking!

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Last Week’s Record: 1-2

Season Record: 5-12