Calmer weather is expected for much of Monday, but clouds will be thickening from the west during the PM hours ahead of a few showers which will develop overnight into Tuesday. Drier, breezy weather in on tap for the second half of Tuesday and most of Wednesday, but odds are increasing for a larger storm to bring rain and mountain snow to the News10 viewing area on Thanksgiving.
More clouds will filter into our skies during the PM hours Monday, but dry weather will persist into the evening. Winds will be light out of the west-northwest as high temperatures climb into the 40s in most areas.
Low temperatures in the upper 30s will likely be achieved early this evening, likely prior to midnight, as clouds thicken. These clouds will yield to scattered rain showers, mainly after midnight.
Rainfall coverage will become more widespread Tuesday morning, so have that umbrella at the ready for the commute to work and school. Up in the Adirondacks, surface temperatures to start off may be slightly below freezing in some areas, so a glaze of ice is possible through midday. Rainfall amounts will generally range from 0.2"-0.4" across the region.
The second half of Tuesday is breezy and drier. With the breeze coming off the Great Lakes, accumulating lake-effect snow is anticipated for portions of Central Herkimer and Western Hamilton Counties through Wednesday. High temperatures on Tuesday will flirt with 50 in a lot of spots, but we will only get cooler going forward through this forecast.
High temperatures Wednesday will reach the 40s with more clouds to the north and west as the lake response continues. Wind gusts could approach 30 MPH during the afternoon. Temperatures will continue to trend colder into Thanksgiving.
Still staring at two storm scenarios for Thanksgiving, but guidance over the past 24 hours has trended to a more direct impact across our region.
While still not a guarantee due to model uncertainty, the now favored scenario would bring widespread rain and accumulating mountain snow on Thanksgiving, likely disrupting travel. More time is needed before we can get specific with potential rain and snowfall amounts, especially as model guidance irons out their differences.
Our weather team's eyes are peeled on every new piece of data as it comes available, so stick with us on-air and online for the latest on this system. Regardless of a direct impact or not, temperatures will really cool down to ring in December. With a flow off the Great Lakes expected to persist for Friday and the weekend, a few bands of snow showers will develop each day, but we aren't talking about widespread snow fall for these three days.
