Access to affordable and reliable energy is central to a flourishing society. Everything we do, from waking up in the morning, to going to work, to enjoying time with our families, requires energy. Fortunately, Chris Wright, President-elect Trump’s choice to serve as Secretary of Energy, understands this.
But Mr. Wright’s qualifications have become obscured by media focus on his views on climate change. For example, the Washington Post derides Mr. Wright as a “skeptic of mainstream climate science.” But mainstream climate scientists say that there have been no changes in severe weather that can be attributed to greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel burning. There likely will be few, if any, such changes by the end of this century.
This is the problem with most media reporting: If the subject is climate change, then the sky is falling. But even the U.N.-led Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change admits that there have been no changes in severe weather, anywhere, that can be tied to human greenhouse gas emissions.
It’s true that temperatures have risen modestly, at a rate of about 0.2 degrees Celsius per decade (with large, natural year-to-year variations). But it’s not at all clear this is bad news for humans, flora, or fauna. Growing seasons are lengthening. Cold weather-related deaths far exceed hot weather deaths. Global crop yields continue to set records in most years. If you have been led to believe otherwise, blame your local alarmist cadre of environmental organizations, activist scientists, and alarmist media outlets.
The fact is that global warming has been progressing at a lesser rate than predicted by most climate models used to alarm elected representatives into climate action. After 40 years and billions of dollars in investment in the climate modeling enterprise, those models now disagree with each other more than ever.
In projections of future warming in response to the same assumptions about changes in CO2, the model with the largest change has three times the temperature change of the model with the smallest forecast. This is surprising given that climate models are allegedly based upon “known physical principles,” and so the different models should produce about the same levels of warming.
The lack of climate model accuracy is especially pronounced in the U.S. corn belt, where every one of three dozen state-of-the-art models has over-predicted warming in the last 50 years — despite knowing the answer ahead of time. But global greening from more CO2 in the atmosphere is a fact, attested to by multiple NASA-sponsored studies (e.g. here, here, here).
More fundamentally, policies aimed to constrict Americans’ choices of energy away from fossil fuels will have significant effects on the economy. Using government models, Heritage Foundation analysis concluded that the regulations pursued by the Biden-Harris administration seeking to diminish the use of fossil fuels would have cost the economy over $7 trillion over a 20-year time horizon, amounting to a loss of over $80,000 for a family of four.
And all these trillions of dollars for a reduction of less than 0.2 degrees Celsius in global temperatures by 2100. That’s a huge amount of pain for miniscule gain.
Increasing access to fossil fuels here in the United States, on the other hand, would expand the economy by over $3 trillion a 20-year time horizon. This would result in less than 0.13 degrees Celsius temperature increase in 2100, again using government models.
America is fortunate to have vast resources of fossil fuels that enable energy independence both from OPEC and from China, which dominates renewables, batteries, and electric vehicles. Increasing production of fossil fuels can lower electricity prices, benefiting all Americans, and help allies abroad. Chris Wright, the CEO of Liberty Energy—one of the largest fracking companies in the U.S.—has the experience to pave the way for a massive private-sector expansion.
Mr. Wright’s knowledge of energy markets should be celebrated, not derided. Allowing the incoming administration to leverage his talents and expertise will put affordable and reliable energy back on the pedestal, thereby enabling America to flourish for years to come.
Kevin Dayaratna, Ph.D., is Chief Statistician and Senior Fellow at the Heritage Foundation, where Roy Spencer, Ph.D., is a Visiting Fellow.
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