An unpredictable winter is in store for Southern Californians.
A La Niña weather pattern is forecast to develop over the next several months. A La Niña year, as opposed to an El Niño year, is characterized by stronger trade winds and colder ocean temperatures, often resulting in drier weather on the west coast, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) .
La Niña weather patterns can be unpredictable, though, leaving forecasters unable to make confident predictions until around two weeks or less before the weather changes.
“It tends to be hit or miss,” said Alex Tardy, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service (NWS) and NOAA. “So we’ll get big storms, but then we might be without a storm or rain for three or four weeks in the middle of the winter. And then a lot of times we get cold storms and we get storms that bring wind. “A lot of wind and Santa Ana Winds.”
Tardy cited the February 2023 blizzard that brought multiple feet of snow to Southern California’s mountainous areas – which occurred in a La Niña year.
The historic storms left San Bernardino County with shattered infrastructure and many questions about the county’s emergency preparedness and response.
Heavy snow is one frequent consequence of an El Niño year, but it can also appear during a La Niña pattern. And while both can result in heavy snow and rain, La Niña can also bring a drought, Tardy said, as the storms don’t necessarily offset an overall drier pattern.
“In Southern California you really have to prepare for multiple things in this type of winter,” he said.
At Goodwin & Sons Market in Crestline, the employees and managers are no strangers to intense winter weather; a roof collapse destroyed their market and led to a 14-month closure following the 2023 blizzard. The store reopened in May 2024 , redesigned with fortified structural measures including a new roof built to handle double the snow capacity that the old one could shoulder.
Following the reopening of the market, the only grocery store in Crestline, a San Bernardino County town with a population of roughly 10,000, Goodwin & Sons is looking forward to snow this winter, with a strong storefront and anticipation of the tourism that winter weather drives to the area.
“I think we’re in a great position to weather any storm that comes, whether it be wind, snow, rain. There’s a lot of people in town I think that they have done the same. I think the anticipation for storms is a little different than it was three, four years ago,” said Mike Johnstone, vice president of Goodwin & Sons.
“More people are getting prepared for any major events that may hit us now,” he said. “That means making sure that the gutters are clean, making sure that you have shovels on hand, making sure drainage can leave your property. Everybody’s a little bit more in tune with the weather events that could hit us.”
With confidence in their winter preparation, the market is looking forward to the holiday season and the tourism boost that Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Years tend to bring, usually made even more popular when there is snow. Ski resorts starting to open this week will help drive traffic to Crestline, Johnstone noted.
Fire is another concern for many Southern California residents, even as the region pushes towards winter. Recent wildfires, such as September’s Line fire, have left burn scars in many areas that can lead to flooding, mud slides and debris flows in the case of heavy rains.
“That’s the problem with La Niña — we should start getting storms as we get deeper into the winter, but the season also tends to have high fire weather conditions,” Tardy said. “So both of those scenarios can present problems.”
With high-powered tastes like the Santa Ana Winds, flames can spread quickly. Red flag advisories related to dangerous winds have been issued in several Southern California counties over the past few weeks, and wind speed contributed to the fast spread of the Mountain fire that broke out in Camarillo on Nov. 6 that destroyed 130 properties, mostly homes.
Now, with potential rain hitting the Inland Empire and Orange, Los Angeles and Ventura counties this weekend, Southern Californians will likely get a reminder of what winter can bring.
