New winter forecast shows NY may have higher chances of rain, snow

(NEXSTAR) – A new weather outlook, released by the Climate Prediction Center Thursday, shows what may be in store for us this winter – and it looks a lot like La Niña.

Though La Niña hasn't officially started yet, it's favored to take hold over the next month and strengthen as we head into winter. La Niña has different impacts depending on where you live.

For example, it can lead to drought conditions in the southern states, as the jet stream keeps rain-filled storms away from them. It does the opposite for the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley, bringing in lots of moisture.

Those typical patterns show up in the updated winter outlook, which shows the Pacific Northwest, Great Lakes region, and Ohio Valley leaning toward seeing a wetter-than-average winter.

Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming have the highest chance of above-average rain or snow, but Washington, Oregon, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and parts of Iowa, Kentucky, Pennsylvania, and New York are leaning that way, as well.

It's hard to say whether that precipitation will come down as rain or snow, since it depends on how cold it is when the storms move in. The best chances for snow may be in the Pacific Northwest and along the U.S.-Canada border, where chances are highest for a colder-than-average winter.

To make matters more complicated, this year's La Niña is expected to be weak and short, which can change its impact on snowfall. A recent review of weak La Niña years found they tend to bring more snow to the Dakotas and Minnesota, while strong La Niñas bring the most snow to Washington and Oregon.

Much of the rest of the country is favored to be warm this year. The Southwest and Gulf states especially have a 50% to 60% chance of above-average winter temperatures.

Many of those states are seeing moderate to severe drought conditions, and a warm, dry winter would only make that worse.