The Pittsburgh Steelers are 8-2 and the Cleveland Browns are 2-8. Yet, when these teams kick off Thursday night for their first of two meetings in the next three weeks, the Steelers will only be favored by somewhere around 3.5 points.
Something seems off about that.
Surely, the Browns are getting a little boost from the advantage of playing at home in a short week. And these AFC North battles can always be somewhat unpredictable. But after knocking off the Baltimore Ravens last week, the Steelers are a team climbing up people’s ladder of Super Bowl contenders — they have the sixth-best odds (+1800) at BetMGM. In no world should the Browns be able to hang this tight.
Unless, oddsmakers expect the weather to play a factor.
Cleveland will be under a winter weather advisory from 3 p.m. ET to midnight, according to AccuWeather, with a better than 60% chance for rain or snow from 5 p.m. to right around kickoff at 8 p.m. That type of weather certainly has the potential to slow Pittsburgh’s offense, which theoretically gives Cleveland a better chance to keep the game tight and potentially cover.
My rebuttal to that would be Cleveland’s offense has to play in it too — and while going against Pittsburgh’s defense. That’s why the weather wouldn’t change how I picked against the spread. I would be more inclined to go with the under knowing these teams may not want to air it out in bad weather, and apparently others are too. The total is now down to 37 from an opening line of 40.5, and there’s an equal split on money bet on the over/under at BetMGM.
If things get too bad, don’t expect to see a ton of points on either side. In a game between the Steelers and Browns, that probably wasn’t likely anyway. In bad weather, Pittsburgh wins 17-10. Otherwise, it’s something like 24-17.
Ken Blaze-Imagn Images
Spread: 90% of bets on Steelers / 84% of money on Steelers
Moneyline: 77% of bets on Steelers / 89% of money on Steelers
Total: 54% of bets on over / 50% of money on over & under
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Steelers -3.5
I said the weather wouldn’t change my pick on the spread, right? Yeah, I’m rolling with the Steelers who not only have a far superior defense, but they also run the ball better.
If the weather gets too bad, a Browns offense that already couldn’t run only becomes easier to stop. The Steelers, meanwhile, have a nice balance of letting Russell Wilson cook and getting Najee Harris the ball. I expect they’ll be able to continue moving it on a Browns defense that ranks 28th in yards allowed per play and 25th in yards per rush.
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Jaylen Warren Over 35.5 rushing yards
Whether or not the Steelers feel inclined the keep the ball on the ground, Warren has a great chance to eclipse 35 yards, as he’s been over this number in four straight games.
More importantly, Warren’s usage has been up in that span. He’s averaging 11 rush attempts in his last four games after getting just five per game over the previous four. Especially in a short week, expect the Steelers to keep feeding him to lighten the load on Harris.
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Najee Harris (+105)
Anytime you can get plus odds on the player most likely to score a touchdown in a game, I feel like you have to take those. Harris is the lead back on the team favored to win, and he’ll have ample opportunities to cross the goal line. Teams actually don’t run much on the Browns, but their running backs do score at a disproportionately high rate relative to those carries.
Taysom Hill ran for three touchdowns on the Browns last week. Harris has a score in three of his last five games.
