Sen. Bob Casey (D.), who trailed Republican Dave McCormick in Pennsylvania by tens of thousands of votes going into a state-mandated recount this week, picked up just four votes in the counties that have finished the recount process so far, according to the McCormick campaign.
That minuscule swing was out of roughly 52,000 votes cast in Armstrong, Forest, Montour, and Sullivan counties, which completed their recounts on Tuesday. Casey picked up a total of five votes in Armstrong and Sullivan counties, while McCormick picked up one vote in Montour, according to the McCormick campaign, which obtained the numbers from election observers operating in each county.
Casey, a three-term incumbent, will need a far higher ratio of votes to swing in his favor in the remaining counties to overcome his deficit to McCormick. As of Wednesday, the Republican led Casey by 17,000 votes, out of roughly 6.8 million votes cast in all.
The McCormick campaign, which has dubbed the process the "recount to nowhere," said it expects the same pattern to hold across the commonwealth.
"While it is Senator Casey’s prerogative to seek a recount, it is a waste of time and taxpayer money," said McCormick communications director Elizabeth Gregory. "With four counties done, there has been virtually no change in the result. We expect this pattern to be repeated everywhere."
If Pennsylvania’s other 63 counties see votes swing at a similar ratio, Casey will net roughly 500 votes, in line with past recounts. According to the Associated Press, there have been 36 statewide recounts since 2000, none of which have resulted in changes of more than a few hundred votes.
While news organizations like the Associated Press and Decision Desk have already projected McCormick the winner of the race, Casey and his Democratic allies have insisted on a recount, which is automatically triggered when the vote margin is below a half-percentage point. Casey, the Democratic National Committee, and the Kamala Harris campaign have all solicited donations to fund the recount battle. The Harris campaign said in a fundraising email on Wednesday that it has "staff on the ground" in states "that are within the margin of recounts or certain legal challenges."
Counties were required to start the recount process by Wednesday, though some counties began on Monday. They have until Nov. 26 to finish the count, and results will be announced the following day.
While the McCormick team is confident that Casey cannot close the gap, there are some concerns that Democrats will use legal maneuvers to count questionable ballots. Two Bucks County commissioners, both allies of Casey, voted last week to count ballots that the state Supreme Court had already deemed invalid for lacking proper signatures.
The Casey legal team, led by disgraced elections lawyer Marc Elias, has sued in several counties to count ballots with signature and date issues. Elias has used questionable tactics to overturn the results of several elections. In 2021, Elias unsuccessfully pressured House Democratic leaders to overturn Iowa Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks’s (R.) victory over his client, Rita Hart. Elias has served as attorney in several recount battles, most recently for former Florida Sen. Bill Nelson (D.) in his 2018 loss to Republican Rick Scott.
Elias represented disgraced comedian Al Franken in his successful recount against incumbent Sen. Norm Coleman (R., Minn.) in 2008. Franken trailed Coleman by 215 votes heading into the recount, but ended up winning by 225. It was the last time a recount has flipped the results of an election.
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