The weather this fall has not been feeling particularly autumnal. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, last month’s average temperature in the lower 48 states was 59 degrees. That’s almost five degrees above average, which made last month the second warmest October on record. September was warmer than usual, too.
All of the temperate weather has been affecting what consumers are buying and not buying. On its earnings call Wednesday, Target noted that apparel sales were down about 1% for the quarter and said that the weather has played a role in that.
When the weather can be described as “balmy,” consumers don’t really feel like buying something woolen. “It’s not appealing. You’re not even thinking of it,” said Katie Thomas, lead of the consumer institute at consulting firm Kearney.
She said a lot of retailers have had a hard time moving coats and sweaters this fall, and she expects they’ll end up discounting them.
With a climate that’s warming up, Thomas said, it’s time for the retail industry to have a good long think about what it sells and when.
“I think we tend to just do a little bit of the status quo, which is, ‘Oh, it’s the fall season. It’s the fall assortment. We need to have sweaters in it,'” she said.
Thomas is also having some conversations that border on the existential: Like, in the future, will we need winter scarves at all? And if we do, what will they be like?
“Do they somehow look different, is it that they’re not quite so oversized? Are there other ways you think about what a scarf could be?” she said.
But with climate change, it can be really hard to know what’s coming.
“We could have a blizzard next year on October 1st. We have no idea right now,” said Sonia Lapinksy, fashion retail lead and managing director at Alix Partners.
Lapinsky said to plan for a potential blizzard or potential balminess, retailers should take a cue from the fast fashion industry and develop more flexible production schedules.
“Where they can order very small batches, get it into stores and kind of test it before they commit to a really large production run, where they’re going to be sitting on a lot of inventory,” she said.
There are certain retailers benefiting from the warmer weather: The Charmery makes ice cream and sells it at six stores in Baltimore and D.C. Owner David Alima said sales are up 7% so far this year from 2023.
“To see a line out the door, and in September, in October, it’s just … it’s the best,” he said.
Alima said one thing that’s been a little strange is selling what he calls “hoodie weather flavors,” like spiced pumpkin (sorry Kai) and apple butter when the temperature only calls for a t-shirt.
But he doesn’t mind, and he doesn’t think customers do, either.
