How do the 2025 Oscars Best Picture contenders stack up on Rotten Tomatoes? And does the film with the highest freshness rating have a better shot at winning the big prize?
While critics’ scores don’t determine the Best Picture lineup (there are thousands of highly-rated movies each year), once the lineup is selected by AMPAS, there are at least a few tea leaves worth noting. For instance, the only film to win Best Picture in the last 10 years with a freshness rating lower than 90% is “Green Book,” which has a Tomatometer score of just 77%.
Last year’s winner, “Oppenheimer,” holds a formidable 93%, but it didn’t rank first among it’s competitors. That distinction went to “The Holdovers,” which has a rating of 97%. So, a movie doesn’t have to have the highest score, but it certainly helps its chances. And falling below 90% would put any movie at an extreme disadvantage, statistically.
Below are the films currently predicted to make the 2025 Oscars Best Picture lineup based on Gold Derby’s odds, which we then ranked by Rotten Tomatoes score. We’ll continue to update this list weekly as the lineup and/or scores fluctuate.
1. “Sing Sing” – 98%
Distributor: A24
Director: Greg Kwedar
Cast: Colman Domingo, Clarence Maclin, Paul Raci
IMDb: Divine G, imprisoned at Sing Sing for a crime he didn’t commit, finds purpose by acting in a theatre group alongside other incarcerated men in this story of resilience, humanity, and the transformative power of art.
2. “Anora” – 97%
Distributor: Neon
Director: Sean Baker
Cast: Mikey Madison, Yura Borisov, Mark Eydelshteyn
IMDb: “Anora” is a comedy about a sex worker shot in New York City and Las Vegas.
3. “The Brutalist” – 97%
Distributor: A24
Director: Brady Corbet
Cast: Adrien Brody, Felicity Jones, Guy Pearce
IMDb: When visionary architect László Toth and his wife Erzsébet flee post-war Europe in 1947 to rebuild their legacy and witness the birth of modern America, their lives are changed forever by a mysterious and wealthy client.
4. “A Real Pain” – 96%
Distributor: Searchlight Pictures
Director: Jesse Eisenberg
Cast: Jesse Eisenberg, Kieran Culkin
IMDb: Mismatched cousins David and Benji reunite for a tour through Poland to honor their beloved grandmother. The adventure takes a turn when the odd-couple’s old tensions resurface against the backdrop of their family history.
5. “Dune: Part Two” – 92%
Distributor: Warner Bros.
Director: Denis Villeneuve
Cast: Timothee Chalamet, Javier Bardem, Austin Butler, Zendaya
IMDb: Paul Atreides unites with Chani and the Fremen while seeking revenge against the conspirators who destroyed his family.
6. “Conclave” – 92%
Distributor: Focus Features
Director: Edward Berger
Cast: Ralph Fiennes, John Lithgow, Stanley Tucci, Isabella Rossellini
IMDb: Cardinal Lawrence is tasked with leading one of the world’s most secretive and ancient events, selecting a new Pope, where he finds himself at the center of a conspiracy that could shake the very foundation of The Church.
7. “Wicked” – 92%
Distributor: Universal Pictures
Director: John M. Chu
Cast: Cynthia Erivo, Ariana Grande, Jonathan Bailey, Michelle Yeoh
IMDb: After two decades as one of the most beloved and enduring musicals on the stage, Wicked makes its long-awaited journey to the big screen as a spectacular, generation-defining cinematic event this holiday season.
8. “Nickel Boys” – 85%
Distributor: Amazon MGM Studios
Director: RaMell Ross
Cast: Ethan Herisse, Brandon Wilson, Daveed Diggs, Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor
IMDb: Based on the Pulitzer Prize winning novel by Colson Whitehead, Nickel Boys chronicles the powerful friendship between two young African American men navigating the harrowing trials of reform school together in Florida.
9. “Emilia Pérez” – 80%
Distributor: Netflix
Director: Jacques Audiard
Cast: Karla Sofia Gascón, Zoe Saldaña, Selena Gomez, Edgar Ramirez
IMDb: Mexico, today. Lawyer Rita receives an unexpected offer. She has to help a feared cartel boss retire from his business and disappear forever by becoming the woman he’s always dreamed of being.
10. “Gladiator II” – 75%
Distributor: Paramount Pictures
Director: Ridley Scott
Cast: Paul Mescal, Pedro Pascal, Denzel Washington, Connie Nielsen
IMDb: After his home is conquered by the tyrannical emperors who now lead Rome, Lucius is forced to enter the Colosseum and must look to his past to find strength to return the glory of Rome to its people.
Here are the Rotten Tomatoes scores for the last 10 Best Picture winners: “Oppenheimer” (93%), “Everything Everywhere All At Once” (94%), “CODA” (94%), “Nomadland” (93%), “Parasite” (99%), “Green Book” (77%), “The Shape of Water” (92%), “Moonlight” (98%), “Spotlight” (97%), and “Birdman” (91%). Based on these historical scores, “Emilia Pérez,” “Gladiator II,” and “Nickel Boys” have their work cut out for them if they hope to win Best Picture. But as “Green Book” has proven, there’s an exception to every rule!
SIGN UP for Gold Derby’s free newsletter with latest predictions
