President-elect Donald Trump’s nominations are beginning to shape U.S. Taiwan policy and the trilateral relationship between Washington, Beijing, and Taipei. All eyes are on recent announcements and predictions, including Representative Mike Waltz (R-FL) as national security advisor and Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) as Secretary of State. As the new Trump administration lineup unfurls, the People’s Republic of China and Taiwan, as well as U.S. Indo-Pacific allies, are watching closely for clues as to what the next administration intends to do. Taiwan, in particular, is a key partner in determining the balance of political, economic, and military power in the world today.
One of the most critical regions of the world concerning U.S. national security is the Indo-Pacific. As the security guarantor for the Asia-Pacific since the end of WWII, the United States has guaranteed the peace, security, and prosperity of the region. Because we want to see the Trump administration continue this vital role in the Asia-Pacific, we offer the following recommendations to fulfill American interests in the Asia-Pacific and continue to provide for the peace and security of a free Indo-Pacific.
First, President Trump should continue the long-standing U.S. “One China” policy. This policy differs from Beijing’s “One China” principle. For the Chinese Communist Party in Beijing, Taiwan is an integral part of the People’s Republic of China. The U.S. “One China” policy, as enumerated in the Three Communiques and Taiwan Relations Act, acknowledges Beijing’s view without agreeing to it. U.S. policy is that Taiwan’s status should be determined via peaceful means. Arms sales to Taiwan and visits by members of Congress and U.S. government officials thus do not violate “One China,” no matter how forcefully Beijing disagrees.
Second, we recommend that President Trump visit Asian allies early in his administration, followed by a visit to Beijing. Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and Australia are not only treaty allies but have been stalwart diplomatic allies in international organizations and valuable trade partners. A visit to any or all of these allies will send a message to those countries that the United States is committed to the peace and security of a free and open Indo-Pacific. The president should follow these visits with one to Beijing. He has been there before and enjoyed a cordial meeting with China’s leader Xi Jinping. While in Beijing, President Trump should reiterate in no uncertain terms that he will not tolerate aggression and abuse against our treaty allies, noting China’s recent and accelerated aggression against the Philippine Coast Guard and civilian vessels in the Western Philippine Sea.
Third, the Trump administration should send a cabinet-level official to Taiwan, one of our most important friends in the Indo-Pacific. President Trump signed the Taiwan Travel Act in 2018, allowing high-level U.S. officials to visit Taiwan. The island is a beacon of democracy in Asia. It also is our seventh-largest merchandise trading partner and the eighth-largest market for agricultural goods. It is home to TSMC, a linchpin in the global semiconductor landscape that produces unmatched integrated circuits, controlling over 90 percent of the market for advanced chips. Taiwan also has a world-class education system, particularly in science, technology, and mathematics, drawing thousands of American students not only to study Chinese but also to earn degrees at its prestigious universities. Cabinet members appropriate to send to Taiwan include the secretaries of commerce, education, or agriculture. Barring those, other appropriate high-level officials would include the U.S. trade representative, deputy or under secretaries of education, or the under-secretary of agriculture for trade and foreign agricultural affairs.
Taiwan’s location in East Asia is vital to U.S. strategic interests in the Indo-Pacific. Its location in the First Island Chain makes it vitally important that we support a Taiwan that China does not control. Chinese domination of Taiwan would open the entire Western Pacific to the might of China’s Navy, granting it hegemony in the maritime domain.
Fourth, President Trump needs to clarify that the future of Taiwan is not for Washington to decide. President Trump’s critics tag him as “transactional,” and as such, he might be willing to trade Taiwan for peace in the region. As President Trump knows, Taiwan is not for sale. He and Beijing know that it is not in his power to ask Taiwan to unify with the PRC. Taiwan is a democratic polity where voters and their elected representatives make decisions. Because President Trump has neither the power nor the political capital to sell Taiwan, Beijing knows that it cannot buy it from him. By reiterating this point, President Trump can put his critics at rest.
Fifth, and finally, we recommend that President Trump summon the political will required to support the American strategy of “peace through strength” in managing China. Knowing Taiwan’s indispensable technological value to America’s national interests, Trump should continue to send weapons packages that simultaneously address symmetric and asymmetric threats.
The next industrial revolution will be anchored in critical and rare-earth minerals and most modern technologies such as chips, optics, and satellites, which underscore the importance of our Taiwan partnership in balancing economic, political, and military power. A significant cross-Strait conflict, be it kinetic or voluntary, could affect as much as $1.6 trillion, or about 8 percent, of U.S. annual gross domestic product, thus dealing a crippling blow to the automotive, telecommunications, and personal electronics industries. For all these reasons, losing Taiwan is non-negotiable.
Elizabeth Freund Larus is a Nonresident Fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub & Indo-Pacific Security Initiative, Pacific Forum Adjunct Senior Fellow, Professor Emerita of Political Science and International Affairs, University of Mary Washington, and President and CEO of E Larus Consulting LLC. Follow her on X: @ElizabethLarus.
Shirley Martey Hargis is a Nonresident Fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub & Digital Forensic Research Lab and Board Director at the Truman National Security Project, former Senior China Policy Fellow at Third Way’s National Security Program’s U.S.-China Digital World Order Initiative, intelligence government contractor, and formerly led the Countering PRC Acquisition and Misuse of Weaponizable Tech & Talent Team at CRDF Global. Follow her on X: @ShirleyMHargis.
Image: Anne Moneymaker / Shutterstock.com.
