The Mets’ pitching rotation was one of their largest question marks looming entering the 2024 season. Looking back, that cloud of uncertainty turned into a bright spot of emerging talent and comeback journeys. It culminated in a trip to the National League Championship Series, where a lack of depth (mostly due to injury) to the Mets’ rotation and bullpen hurt them.
Along the way, David Peterson blossomed into a bonafide starter, but more importantly, David Stearns’ additions of Sean Manaea and Luis Severino proved vital.
In his first year as president of baseball operations with the Mets, Stearns approached the rotation with a simple philosophy demonstrated through the players he signed: low-risk, high reward. He courted players who either experienced highs like Severino but injury-plagued seasons got the best of them or flashed signs of brilliance like Manaea but couldn’t produce it consistently. The Mets took a flyer on both these players, each producing career-best years or close to them.
While we know the Mets will look to sign a front-line starter like Corbin Burnes, they still need to fill out the rotation after Peterson and Kodai Senga. Below, we examine who David Stearns and the Mets can turn to in the rotation come 2025 to try and strike gold twice with this similar “low risk, high reward” mentality.
Photo by David Richard-USA TODAY Sports
A Cy Young and Triple Crown winner in 2020, Shane Bieber would never have been on this list as recently as a year ago. However, the injury bug caught him, and after pitching just 12 innings in 2024 and 128 innings in 2023, the starter went under the knife in April, another Tommy John surgery victim. In his six-year career with Cleveland, he’s pitched 200+ innings twice, once in 2019 and 2022. After that however, he’s never pitched over 128 innings (2023), hitting 114.2 in his 2018 rookie season and 96.2 innings in 2021.
Bieber, a Gold Glove winner, and two-time All-Star, relies on a five-pitch arsenal: a four-seamer, slider, changeup, knuckle-curve and cutter. He owns a career 3.22 ERA over 843 innings pitched, striking out 958 batters while only walking 188. Of concern over the past couple of years was Bieber’s strikeout percentage decline. He saw season highs during 2021 at 33.1%, but that number steadily declined to 25% in 2022 and a career-low 20.1% in 2023. However, while he only made two starts in 2024, he struck out 20 batters and only walked one. His velocity saw an uptick in 2024 after hitting career lows in 2022 and 2023, another sign things were turning his way before injury.
While Bieber won’t be ready for the start of the season (he’s expected to return around mid-season), he can bolster any rotation in the thick of a playoff race, adding the extra boost to cross the finish line. His deal could easily include an option for 2026, which he can decline if he bounces back healthy.
Matthew Boyd, 79mph Wipeout Slider. ???? pic.twitter.com/hEckjRMrrC
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 7, 2024
Another Tommy John victim, Matthew Boyd, lost all of 2023 and most of 2024 in recovery. With 891 career strikeouts through 908.1 innings, the southpaw hasn’t pitched over 100 innings since 2019, but the Guardians might’ve unlocked something in Boyd in 2024. While he only pitched in just over 39 innings, including 11.1 brilliant innings of one-run postseason ball, Boyd never went more than six innings in a start, averaging around five innings per start. He held batters to a grim .212 batting average, walking 13 and striking out 46.
Hitters were left shaking their heads after each at-bat, coming up with a .150 BA against Boyd’s fastball, .167 BA against the curveball and .148 average against the slider. Lefties hit .143/.226/.357, while righties didn’t fare much better, slashing .230/.296/.344 against the southpaw. The Mets proved with Luis Severino they know how to help a pitcher bounce back from injury with light loads the previous couple of years.
Trevor Williams, Nasty 82mph Changeup…and Sword. ⚔️ pic.twitter.com/xIRCemW3Hy
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 7, 2024
Trevor Williams is no stranger to Queens, acquired in the Javier Báez trade that sent Pete Crow-Armstrong to the Chicago Cubs. Williams spent half of the 2024 season on the IL with a right flexor muscle strain, but in his 13 starts, he struck out 59 batters and walked 18 through 66.2 innings. Williams’ best years came with the Mets in 2021-2022. He posted a 3.17 ERA with the Amazins’ in 122 innings, with a career-best 123 ERA+ in that span. He was used as a reliever and spot starter, thriving in any role the Mets threw him in.
While Williams missed half the season, he ranked in the top seven percent in baseball in weighted on-base average (wOBA) at .248 and in the top 10% in xwOBAcon (.325). His 3.17 xERA against his 2.03 ERA proved he was efficient at suppressing runs. A reason for Williams’ success in 2024? After posting a career-worst 5.55 ERA in 2023, Williams dropped his curveball in 2024. Batters hit .314 and slugged .629 against the curve in 2023. Williams held the best fastball run value on the Nationals in 2024 (12), fooling batters to a .196 batting average against. In 2023, he had a negative eight-run value on the fastball, and hitters were mashing .283 against it. He decreased his fastball use and increased his sweeper use as a put-away pitch.
Jose Butto filled Williams’ role in the bullpen, but the Mets might want to take a flyer on Williams as a full-time starter.
Brad Penner-Imagn Images
Like Bieber, Walker Buehler is a fascinating case. After missing most of the 2022 season and all of the 2023 season, Buehler returned to the Dodgers rotation in mid-May after Tommy John surgery. Between 2017 and 2022, he posted a 3.02 ERA in 638.1 innings, striking out 690 and walking 162. In 2024, the righty started 16 games, allowed 16 home runs, struck out 64 and walked 28. He pitched to a career-worst 5.38 ERA in 75.1 innings, winning only one game. However, he became a postseason hero, pitching as a starter and in relief. In 15 innings of work, he held batters to a .211 BAA, compared to a .286 BAA in the regular season. He struck out 13 batters and only walked five.
Since debuting in 2017, Buehler has only thrown more than 100 innings thrice: in 2018, 2019 and 2021, when he eclipsed 200 innings. While his velocity has taken a dip throughout the years, so has the effectiveness of his breaking stuff. In 2021, arguably his best season, his fastball has a run value of 19, his sweeper, seven, curveball sat at five, sinker, three, and changeup, five. In 2024, Buehler’s fastball run value was negative eight, his cutter, his most effective pitch, was seven, curveball and sinker were negative five, His cutter and sweeper were the only pitchers in 2024 to hold a positive run value, at seven and two.
While this is all cause for alarm, Buehler displayed a familiar version of himself in October, ultimately helping the Dodgers secure a World Series win. For a Dodgers rotation riddled with injury after injury in 2024, it’s unknown if Buehler rushed back too soon. Whether he commands a one-year or multi-year deal, Buehler can strengthen any rotation.
As noted, the Mets are on the hunt for an ace, with the likes of Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell and Max Fried on their radar (to name a few). However, after Peterson and Senga, the rotation is bleak. The depth chart consists of Tylor Megill and David Peterson right now. There are plenty of prospects, too, but you can’t bank on them filling out a rotation. While the team will make a flurry of smaller deals to build depth, filling the back of the rotation is equally as important. 2024 proved that when one door closes, another one opens, which led to some incredible pitching performances from starters.
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