Ten months ago today, Jedd Fisch was introduced as Washington’s head coach and laid out his goals for the program.
“Sustained success is critical in college football,” Fisch said, defining that quality as “the ability to, each and every year, compete for championships; the ability, each and every year, to be at the top of your conference, the top of the nation. The University of Washington allows that opportunity.”
Fast forward to the final weeks of Fisch’s first season, and the Huskies are nowhere near the top of their conference or the nation. They are slightly above .500 after a 31-19 victory over UCLA on Friday night in the final home game of the year.
That’s not entirely surprising. The talent lost to the NFL and the transfer portal last winter placed the new coaching staff in a difficult position and set the Huskies on course for the mediocre season that followed:
— They have an overall record of 6-5 that likely will become 6-6 after the season finale at Oregon and a conference record of 4-4 that will drop to 4-5 if they lose in Eugene.
— The Huskies are 6-0 at home and 0-5 when venturing off campus. That mark includes four losses in true road games and a defeat down the street to Washington State at Lumen Field.
— The final indicator of mediocrity comes courtesy of the opposition. UW has not beaten a team that currently owns a winning record.
That’s right: All their wins are at home; and all their wins are against .500 or worse opponents (based on records entering Saturday’s games).
Weber State: 3-7
Eastern Michigan: 5-5
Northwestern: 4-5
Michigan: 5-5
USC: 4-5
UCLA: 4-6
Meanwhile all five of UW’s losses are away from home, and all five are against teams with winning records:
Washington State: 8-1
Rutgers: 5-4
Iowa: 6-4
Indiana: 10-0
Penn State: 8-1
It’s mediocrity incarnate, folks. But in college football, that’s enough for a bowl berth.
The victory Friday, fueled by stout Red Zone defense and backup quarterback Demond Williams, clinched a postseason bid — an important achievement for any new coaching staff.
That goes double when the new staff takes charge of a program that played for the national championship 10 months earlier.
What comes next for the Huskies?
We’ll address that in three segments of increasingly wider timeframes.
— What’s next I: Oregon
Washington owned the Ducks during Kalen DeBoer’s brief tenure, winning all three games by three points — twice as a substantial underdog.
There is no reason to believe Fisch possesses the same magic touch, in large part because the disparity in talent will be far greater on Nov. 30 than it was during the 2022-23 seasons.
The Huskies have regressed considerably at both quarterback and on the offensive line. In contrast, Oregon’s defensive front is better than ever, and its quarterback play remains first rate.
As well as the Huskies have performed defensively under coordinator Steve Belichick, they will be hard pressed to contain the Ducks for fourth quarters.
The early betting lines show Oregon favored by 20.
Barring a massive upset, the Huskies will finish Year 1 of the Fisch era with a 6-6 mark overall and 4-5 in the Big Ten.
— What’s next II: The bowl game
The Pac-12 might have collapsed, but its postseason structure remains intact. The 10 departed schools, along with Washington State and Oregon State, are affiliated with the same bowls as in prior years.
Several scenarios could unfold over the next three weeks that change the collective dynamic, including Colorado jumping into the College Football Playoff as champion of the Big 12.
But many of the bowl-eligible teams will be in Washington’s range, with six or seven wins and limited fan enthusiasm for the postseason.
In a best-case scenario, the Huskies are plucked from the masses and invited to the Las Vegas Bowl to face an opponent from the SEC.
More likely, they will land in the Sun, LA or Independence Bowl.
— What’s next III: Fisch’s goal
Having witnessed UW’s tumultuous winter, the roster rebuild and the directionless regular season, we are left wondering if the program can achieve (in Fisch’s words) “sustained success” and compete for the Big Ten championship “each and every year.”
Yes, Williams is a gifted quarterback who will have plenty of suitors in the transfer portal. If the Huskies retain his services, Williams could be a high-level quarterback for several seasons.
But it will take far more to consistently compete for the championship in a conference with Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Oregon and whichever school happens to muster an upside surprise in any given year.
(This season, Indiana produced the upside surprise. In 2025, it could be Wisconsin, Iowa, Nebraska or perhaps even USC.)
Clearly, the Huskies need to upgrade their lines of scrimmage. They were bludgeoned by Penn State (35-6) and Iowa (40-16) and lost by double digits at Indiana (31-17) even though the Hoosiers were without their starting quarterback.
Had the Huskies faced Ohio State, the outcome would have been comparably lopsided.
And most likely, it will be a one-sided affair in Eugene at the end of the month.
In other words, Washington is multiple touchdowns behind the best of the Big Ten.
Gaps can close quickly in the transfer portal era, as Indiana proved this fall.
But 10 months after Fisch’s introduction and 11 games into the season, there is little clarity on Montlake with regard to UW’s longer-term position in the Big Ten hierarchy.
At this point, envisioning the Huskies alongside the Buckeyes, Ducks and Nittany Lions on a regular basis requires a leap of faith.
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