Typhoon Pepito continues to strengthen over Philippine Sea

MANILA, Philippines – More areas were placed under tropical cyclone wind signals, including Metro Manila and Rizal at Signal No. 1, as Typhoon Pepito (Man-yi) further intensified over the Philippine Sea late Friday evening, November 15.

Pepito’s maximum sustained winds are now at 155 kilometers per hour from the previous 150 km/h, said the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) in a briefing past 11 pm on Friday. The typhoon’s gustiness is now up to 190 km/h from 185 km/h.

PAGASA reiterated that Pepito’s rapid intensification may continue until Saturday, November 16, and it may even reach super typhoon status before hitting land. A super typhoon has maximum sustained winds of 185 km/h or above.

Pepito was located 305 kilometers east of Guiuan, Eastern Samar, at 10 pm on Friday. It slowed down a bit, moving west northwest at 25 km/h, but it has been a generally fast tropical cyclone.

The following areas in Luzon and the Visayas are under tropical cyclone wind signals as of 11 pm, which means they should prepare for winds brought by Pepito:

Signal No. 2

Gale-force winds (62 to 88 km/h), minor to moderate threat to life and property

• northern and eastern parts of Camarines Sur (Caramoan, Siruma, Tinambac, Lagonoy, Garchitorena, Presentacion, San Jose, Goa, Sagñay, Tigaon)
• Catanduanes
• eastern part of Albay (Bacacay, Tabaco City, Rapu-Rapu, Malilipot, Santo Domingo, Malinao, Tiwi, Manito)
• eastern part of Sorsogon (Sorsogon City, Gubat, Prieto Diaz, Barcelona, Casiguran, Bulusan)
• northern and eastern parts of Northern Samar (Mapanas, Gamay, Palapag, Lapinig, Silvino Lobos, Laoang, Catubig, Las Navas, Pambujan, Mondragon, San Roque, Catarman, Lope de Vega, Biri, San Jose, Bobon, Rosario, Lavezares)
• northern part of Eastern Samar (Arteche, Oras, San Policarpo, Dolores, Jipapad, Maslog, Can-avid, Taft)
• northeastern part of Samar (San Jose de Buan, Matuguinao)

Signal No. 1

Strong winds (39 to 61 km/h), minimal to minor threat to life and property

• southern and eastern parts of Isabela (Dinapigue, Palanan, San Mariano, San Guillermo, Jones, Echague, San Agustin, Angadanan, Benito Soliven, Cauayan City, Santiago City, San Isidro, Alicia, Naguilian)
• Quirino
• eastern and southern parts of Nueva Vizcaya (Alfonso Castañeda, Kasibu, Dupax del Norte, Dupax del Sur)
• Aurora
• eastern part of Nueva Ecija (Pantabangan, Rizal, Bongabon, General Mamerto Natividad, Palayan City, General Tinio, Gabaldon, Laur, Peñaranda, Cabanatuan City, Santa Rosa, San Leonardo, Gapan City)
• eastern part of Bulacan (Doña Remedios Trinidad, San Miguel, Norzagaray, San Jose del Monte City, San Ildefonso, San Rafael, Baliuag, Bustos, Santa Maria, Bocaue, Marilao, Meycauayan City, Obando, Balagtas, Angat, Pandi)
• Metro Manila
• Laguna
• Rizal
• Quezon
• Marinduque
• Camarines Norte
• rest of Camarines Sur
• rest of Albay
• rest of Sorsogon
• Masbate including Burias Island and Ticao Island
• rest of Northern Samar
• rest of Eastern Samar
• rest of Samar
• Biliran
• northeastern part of Leyte (Barugo, San Miguel, Babatngon, Tacloban City)

The highest possible tropical cyclone wind signal due to Pepito is Signal No. 5.

PAGASA also released an updated rainfall advisory at 11 pm on Friday, covering the areas below. Floods and landslides are expected.

Friday evening, November 15, to Saturday evening, November 16

• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 millimeters): Northern Samar, Eastern Samar
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Catanduanes, Albay, Samar, Sorsogon

Saturday evening, November 16, to Sunday evening, November 17

• Intense to torrential rain (more than 200 mm): Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Sorsogon, Albay
• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Aurora, Quezon, Masbate, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Nueva Ecija, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Metro Manila, Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal, Leyte, Samar, Biliran, Bataan, Pampanga, Bulacan, Romblon, Marinduque, Samar

Sunday evening, November 17, to Monday evening, November 18

• Intense to torrential rain (more than 200 mm): Quezon
• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Metro Manila, Rizal, Aurora, Pangasinan, Bataan, Zambales, Pampanga, Tarlac, Bulacan, Nueva Ecija
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Marinduque, Romblon, Oriental Mindoro, La Union, Benguet, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino

In addition, there is a moderate to high risk of “life-threatening” storm surges “with peak heights reaching 3 meters above mean sea level” in Isabela, Aurora, Quezon, Batangas, Marinduque, Bicol, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Samar, Biliran, and Leyte within 48 hours.

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PAGASA now sees Pepito moving generally west northwest within the next three days before turning generally west to west southwest from Monday evening, November 18, to Wednesday evening, November 20.

It is still “more likely” to make landfall in Catanduanes on Saturday evening or early Sunday morning, November 17. But considering the cone of probability, the weather bureau is not ruling out landfall in Camarines Sur, Albay, or Sorsogon also on Saturday evening or early Sunday morning; in Northern Samar on Saturday afternoon or evening; or in Quezon or Aurora on Sunday afternoon or evening.

“Regardless of the landfall point,” Pepito is likely to pass over or near the landmass of Bicol, Quezon, Central Luzon provinces, and Pangasinan during the weekend, before emerging over the West Philippine Sea on Sunday evening or Monday morning.

All areas which will be placed under rainfall and wind warnings should prepare for the typhoon, not just areas listed as possible landfall sites.

In terms of intensity, PAGASA said Pepito may slightly weaken “after its initial passage over land,” followed by further weakening on Sunday when it crosses the landmass of Central Luzon. But the weather bureau emphasized that Pepito will still cross land as a typhoon, which means it will still be a serious threat.

Pepito may weaken into a severe tropical storm over the West Philippine Sea and exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility on Monday.

In the next 24 hours, conditions in seaboards affected by Pepito will be dangerous.

Up to very rough or high seas (travel is risky for all vessels)

• Seaboard of Catanduanes – waves up to 12 meters high
• Eastern seaboard of Albay, Sorsogon, and Eastern Samar; northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Samar – waves up to 8 meters high
• Eastern seaboard of Camarines Sur – waves up to 5.5 meters high
• Northern seaboard of Camarines Sur – waves up to 4.5 meters high

Up to rough seas (small vessels should not venture out to sea)

• Eastern seaboard of Dinagat Islands – waves up to 4 meters high
• Seaboard of Surigao del Sur and Siargao Island – waves up to 3.5 meters high
• Seaboards of Batanes, Isabela, Aurora, and northern mainland Quezon; northern and eastern seaboards of Polillo Islands; eastern seaboard of mainland Cagayan and Davao Oriental; remaining seaboard of Northern Samar – waves up to 3 meters high

Up to moderate seas (small vessels should take precautionary measures or avoid sailing, if possible)

• Remaining seaboard of Eastern Samar and Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, northern seaboard of Dinagat Islands; eastern seaboard of Leyte; southern seaboard of Samar – waves up to 2.5 meters high
• Remaining seaboards of Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon, Dinagat Islands, and Surigao del Norte including the rest of Siargao Island; northern seaboard of Ilocos Norte, Masbate including Ticao Island and Burias Island, and Leyte; seaboards of Samar and Biliran; eastern seaboard of Southern Leyte and Quezon including the rest of Polillo Islands – waves up to 2 meters high

Pepito is the Philippines’ 16th tropical cyclone for 2024. It is also the fourth tropical cyclone for November alone, after Marce (Yinxing), Nika (Toraji), and Ofel (Usagi).

Counting from October 21 to present — starting with Kristine (Trami) and Leon (Kong-rey) — Pepito is already the country’s sixth tropical cyclone in less than a month. – Rappler.com