The election of Donald Trump is giving the Islamic Republic of Iran fits.
On Nov. 6, immediately after the electrifying U.S. election, Iran’s state-affiliated Setareh-Sobh newspaper lamented the lost opportunities during President Biden’s four-year term. Citing a regime-affiliated expert, it wrote: “Iran had good opportunities over the past few years. … We should have made gains during the Democrats’ term. The problem, however, is not with the U.S.; the unresolved issue lies within the country itself (read: the regime); Why did four years of a Democratic administration in the White House yield no results for Iran?”
Israel-Hamas war
After the Israel-Hamas war began on Oct. 7, 2023, questions immediately surfaced about how Hamas’ assault on Israel was financed. The vast network of underground tunnels – stretching, as Iranian media claim, farther than Tehran’s metro – and the logistical support for such an operation could not have been executed by Hamas alone. There was little doubt that Tehran was the main financier, and as a result, the Israel-Hamas conflict and its tragic outcomes intensified calls to halt this financial flow.
This increased pressure on President Biden to curb Iranian oil exports, even if it meant risking a politically sensitive rise in global oil prices.
Despite U.S. sanctions targeting Iran’s nuclear ambitions, its support for terrorism and its military aggression in the region, Iranian crude oil exports have risen significantly during Biden’s tenure. Some U.S. lawmakers have criticized this trend as “appeasement” of Iran.
While the Biden administration has publicly claimed it was committed to enforcing sanctions, energy analysts report that Iran’s exports have actually increased four- to five-fold since 2020, with China emerging as Iran’s largest buyer. According to a Nov. 6 report by the state-run newspaper Etemad, “Iranian oil exports in recent years have returned to pre-sanctions levels, while during Trump’s presidency, they had dropped below 500,000 barrels per day, significantly impacting Iran’s oil sector.”
The Foundation for Defense of Democracies estimates that the increase in Iranian oil exports since Biden’s term began has brought Iran an additional $32-$35 billion. Though the calculations are complex, the reasons behind Iran’s windfall are clear: As part of President Biden’s quiet diplomacy with Iran, the U.S. has relaxed sanctions enforcement. Buyers and intermediaries have concluded that the risks are low, and the discounts on Iranian oil are too enticing to pass up, as the Wall Street Journal reported on Nov. 10, 2023.
As a result, Iranian oil sales in 2025 will be a politically sensitive issue, highlighting a stark contrast between President Biden and President-Elect Donald Trump. As state-run newspaper Etemadi reported: “Trump’s approach emphasizes maximum pressure sanctions that can quickly impact Iran’s oil sector, which is why, if he wins the election, the dollar rate may increase by around 10%. Under Trump, Iranian oil exports fell below 500,000 barrels per day, creating significant pressure on Iran’s oil sector.”
In stark contrast, the Biden administration, in addition to its facilitation of Iranian oil sales, also allowed Iran access to $6 billion in frozen assets as part of a prisoner-release deal.
Absolute poverty for two-thirds of Iran’s population
Following the 2015 nuclear deal (the so-called “Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action” or JCPOA), over $150 billion of Iran’s frozen assets were made available to the regime. Over the last four years, Iranian oil sales to China, offered at substantial discounts, have returned to pre-sanctions levels.
Meanwhile, however, absolute poverty has spread to two-thirds of Iran’s population, according to state-affiliated newspapers, despite the country’s wealth in oil, gas and mineral resources. The proceeds from oil sales are either embezzled or redirected toward the Iranian regime’s terrorism and warmongering efforts.
