Tuesday night was a huge one in America that showed nobody really knows anything when it comes to polls and projections.
I am, of course, talking about the College Football Playoff, whose committee unveiled its first rankings of the season. The initial rankings of the field reminded us why this thing was expanded to 12 teams in the first place: to give bigger platforms and paychecks to programs from the Big Ten and SEC.
Just look at the rankings. Seven of the top-8 teams are from those two conferences, with No. 4 Miami as the lone outlier. If the season ended this week, we would have a playoff field with one Big 12 team in BYU, one ACC squad in the Hurricanes, an independent in Notre Dame and Boise State filling the mandated spot for a Group of Five champion. The other eight spots? Oregon, Ohio State, Georgia, Texas, Penn State, Tennessee, Indiana and Alabama. We might as well rename this as the Big Ten-SEC Invitational.
SMU is just outside of the field right now at No. 13. The Mustangs – competing in a major conference for the first time since the Southwest Conference imploded nearly 30 years ago – are undefeated in ACC play and have only one loss, by three points to undefeated and Big 12 frontrunner BYU. Besides name recognition, why is two-loss Alabama more deserving of a spot than SMU? Why is a Notre Dame team that lost at home to North Illinois more deserving of spot than SMU?
The rankings are the way they are not because of merit, accomplishments or skills on the football field: It’s because the College Football Playoff is ultimately a made-for-television product, and the committee is its de facto producers. And a playoff with Notre Dame and Alabama in it is simply more appealing to a wider audience rather than one that includes, say, SMU and Iowa State instead, or – God forbid – Washington State and Army, who have a combined record of 15-1 this season.
There’s still a lot of football left to play and the rankings with shift and change and morph over the next few weeks. But don’t be surprised on Dec. 8 when you’re favorite ACC, Big 12 or Group of Five team is excluded over some Big Ten or SEC program with multiple losses.
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET – ABC/ESPN+
ATHENS, GEORGIA – NOVEMBER 11: Head coach Lane Kiffin of the Mississippi Rebels speaks with head coach Kirby Smart of the Georgia Bulldogs prior to the game at Sanford Stadium on November 11, 2023 in Athens, Georgia. (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)
Lane Kiffin’s team is an underdog at home by about 2.5 points. It’s clear that when Ole Miss is firing on all cylinders on offense, it has what it takes to hang with Georgia offensively, but what about on the other side of the ball? Ole Miss has to win this to get back into real contention for the College Football Playoff.
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET – ABC/ESPN+
COLLEGE STATION, TEXAS – OCTOBER 26: Mason Taylor #86 of the LSU Tigers is congratulated by teammates after a touchdown in the first half against the Texas A&M Aggies at Kyle Field on October 26, 2024 in College Station, Texas. (Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images)
This one is pretty simple: The loser of this game will have three losses, making their odds of earning a bid to the College Football Playoff extremely long. The winner, meanwhile, boosts their resume and probably cracks the field if they can win out. Three of the last five matchups between Alabama and LSU have been decided by six points or less.
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET – ESPN2
Nov 2, 2024; West Point, New York, USA; Army Black Knights head coach Jeff Monken looks at the scoreboard during the first half against the Air Force Falcons at Michie Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Danny Wild-Imagn Images
This is the toughest conference game remaining on Army’s schedule, and then the undefeated Black Knights get a bye week before facing Notre Dame. Army is riding a 12-game win streak that dates back to last season, and during that stretch they haven’t trailed at any point in any game.
Army is one of just five FBS teams still unbeaten this year – the others are Miami, BYU, Indiana and Oregon – and it might be the only one that gets left out of the College Football Playoff. Army needs to win out to have a chance at cracking the 12-team field, and probably needs Boise State to stumble at least once between now and conference championship weekend. Still, winning the American, the C.I.C. trophy, and a bid to a decent non-CFP bowl game are still real possibilities for Jeff Monken’s team.
Saturday, 10:15 p.m. – ESPN2
Aug 31, 2024; Berkeley, California, USA; UC Davis Aggies quarterback Miles Hastings (7) throws a pass against the California Golden Bears during the third quarter at California Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports
Initially I was going to put Delaware vs. Rhode Island in this slot, but I can’t in conscience ask you, reader, to pay for FloSports. If you get the chance to watch Delaware running back Marcus Yarns, you should.
Instead, I’ll recommend watching two of the other best teams in the FCS go at it in one of the more picturesque venues in all of college football, Washington-Grizzly Stadium.
UC Davis quarterback Miles Hastings is third in FCS this season in passing yards with 2,800, and running back Lan Larison is 10th in FCS rushing with 964 yards. Montana has the third highest scoring offense in FCS, putting up 39.4 points per game.
Even if you’re not a college football sicko, check this one out Saturday night.
No. 4 Miami at Georgia Tech: Saturday, 12 p.m. ET – ESPN
Florida at No. 5 Texas: Saturday, 12 p.m. ET – ABC/ESPN+
Michigan at No. 8 Indiana: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET – CBS
No. 20 Colorado at Texas Tech: Saturday, 4 p.m. ET – FOX
