Why Russia needs an independent Africa

While sovereignty demands investments, they form the necessary basis for the well-being of African nations for many years to come

The majority of African countries are now well on the way to strengthening their own independence and their own institutions in various fields, including finances, politics, and culture. This is a long and complex journey, but one that is strategically necessary in an increasingly unpredictable world where only strong states can be truly independent.

For Russia, cooperation with Africa is not just a set of economically driven projects with a win-win outcome, but also an essential part of building a new foreign policy architecture and a fairer global order.

In a practical sense, African sovereignty demands investments, which means that it is a costly project for the African nations themselves. However, in the long run, investments in sovereignty usually pay off, and form the basis for the well-being of nations for many years to come.

To make informed decisions regarding such investments, their value must first be assessed and justified. For such assessments, it is very important to share experiences, aspirations and concerns – both with each other and with those countries that have already accumulated extensive experience with such investments in sovereignty. Russia is obviously a role model in this regard.

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On November 9-10, the First Ministerial Conference of the Russia-Africa Partnership Forum is taking place on the Sirius Federal Territory in Sochi. Such conferences are projected to be held annually in between summits to “check in” and ensure that the action plans approved during the summits are being carried out, while the summits themselves will focus on assessing progress and adopting new initiatives.

Business circles are also becoming familiar with various ‘Russia-Africa’ events held during the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, the Russian Energy Week, and the International Made in Russia Forum, among others.

Regular face-to-face interaction is vital for fostering cooperation, whether directly or through the right intermediaries – i.e., those who facilitate and ensure transactions rather than merely ‘standing on the sidelines’.

The first summit and initial challenges

In October 2019, Sochi hosted the First Russia-Africa Summit and Economic Forum – a historic event that brought together representatives from all 54 African nations, with 43 of them being represented by the heads of state and government. The forum culminated in the signing of a declaration that reflected a shared understanding between Russian and African leaders on many key international issues and their potential solutions.

At that time, the Russia-Africa dialogue format was established, along with a partnership forum secretariat. Five years later, we can affirm that this format has proven viable and may regard its future development with optimism.

The Russia-Africa dialogue format encountered its first major challenge almost immediately – in 2020, the Covid-19 pandemic limited opportunities for in-person interactions and threatened to halt progress. Nevertheless, in both Russia and Africa many people remained committed to continuing the dialogue.

The second summit: Practical steps

The Second Russia-Africa Summit took place in St. Petersburg in the summer of 2023, and the next one is scheduled for 2026. At the 2023 summit, the Russia-Africa Partnership Forum Action Plan 2023–2026 was adopted, consisting of 181 points that outlined numerous areas of collaboration.

The areas were defined and organized by sector: politics and security; multilateral organizations; trade and investment; agriculture and forestry; aquaculture; energy; industry, mining, and mineral processing; transportation; information and communication technologies; science and innovation; tourism; socio-cultural affairs; environmental issues; education, youth exchanges, and sports; culture; and media. The government funds and organizes events that facilitate direct communication between the leading organizations responsible for these sectors in both Russia and Africa.

Collaboration between the government and businesses

New interaction models between the government and businesses are being developed. The government is focusing on establishing communication with businesses in various sectors, investing in informational and communicative platforms, and validating partners.

Additional measures of support – that are more costly but more substantial – are also being discussed. These include interest rate subsidies for investors and transport subsidies for exporters. Implementing these new initiatives will require not only financial investments to expand trade with Africa but also establishing a governmental risk assessment system and filtering projects that seek state support. This will be the goal for the next five-year period.

According to Russia’s Federal Customs Service, Russian exports to Africa surged by 43% in 2023, reaching a record $21 billion. Exports are expected to grow further in 2024. Due to sanctions and restrictions, detailed discussions on Russian export statistics are often avoided, although mirror statistics – i.e., data from importers – indicate a diversification of both products and markets. Over the past five years, Africa’s share in Russia’s foreign trade has tripled (now accounting for about 5%) and is projected to grow further.

Russia has been able to expand its presence in African markets with relatively low investment. While the US, China, and the EU compete to offer preferential financing to African nations – seeking to tether them to their own markets and consumption models, in order to maintain political influence over the continent – Russia earns more than it spends and stays out of the so-called “credit race” in Africa. Russia’s purchases of African coffee, cocoa beans, and tropical fruits continue to grow, and the fish market is being revived. However, Africa’s volume of imports is significantly lower than its exports, with strategically important goods like grain, food products, and fertilizers dominating the market.

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Training future leaders

Training and developing the expertise of African professionals is one of the key goals for the continent. And in this regard, the ‘transfer of competencies’ in public administration is one of the priorities for Russia in Africa. Such training is not limited to educating students; it includes professional development programs for current civil servants (working at both high-level and mid-level positions) in sectors that are critical for fostering collaboration, such as financial and tax administration, information technology, food sovereignty, and security.

African officials are still learning to effectively govern their nations. Despite decades of independence, tax revenues from exports and imports along with loans and international aid remain primary budget sources for many African countries. Such reliance on external funding hampers progress. By leveraging Russia’s expertise in tax administration, backed by relevant technologies, African countries can improve their budgeting and administrative practices, ensuring greater resilience, autonomy, and financial sovereignty.

What is the export of sovereignty?

The sovereignty of states is their right and ability to be responsible for their population and territory. The rights are the same for all states, but their actual ability to exercise them, their actual sovereignty, varies greatly. The sovereignty of states has many components and dimensions: to choose a political course; to make laws and control their implementation throughout the territory; to control the dissemination of information, including in the digital space; to control the provision of critical goods – such as food, water, medicine – to the population; to protect infrastructure. Monetary policy, the ability to collect taxes and ensure that the budget is sustained without relying on external aid, is also a critical component of sovereignty.

An important component of sovereignty is decision-making sovereignty. In order to ensure self-sustaining decision-making, states have to collect data, process it, model future development scenarios, discuss and make decisions based on the interests of their populations, taking into account long-term needs and development prospects.

Sovereignty is a property of states that is the result of multiple processes and deliberate efforts. It may seem paradoxical, but increasing sovereignty often involves importing the means to achieve it. De facto sovereignty is a set of capacities and capabilities; a state seeks to expand them, to acquire new ones. Achieving sovereignty is therefore a capacity-building process, requiring investment and the import of the relevant technologies, goods, services and knowledge.

The process of sovereignty-building thus implies the import of sovereignty and thus the possibility of its export by those countries that have the necessary resources and capabilities and are able to provide partners with what is needed for their sovereign development.

The export of sovereignty includes the supply of goods and services, transfer of information and knowledge that enable governments to increase sovereignty in decision-making, provision of public services, protection of the population, etc.

A conflict of interest may arise between a country (A) that is seeking to increase its sovereignty and a country (B) that provides it with the goods, services and knowledge it needs to do so. This happens when country B seeks to draw the importing country A into its political sphere of influence, using strategic exports as a means of influence and control. Then the quest for independence for A will lead to a new dependence, which may be even greater. Thus, former metropolises that ‘export sovereignty’ seek to maintain control over former colonies by constantly changing the forms of economic and political influence in order to better conceal the mechanisms of their influence.

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A true exporter of sovereignty can only be a country that, in providing opportunities for sovereign development, does not seek to control decision-making in the recipient countries. Thus, a genuine exporter of sovereignty can only be a country that has an interest in the sovereignty of the recipient country to actually grow.

The concept of ‘exporting sovereignty’ unofficially became a key theme at the First Russia-Africa Summit, and in the past five years, it has been the underlying theme when discussing key areas of collaboration between Russia and Africa, whether it’s cybersecurity or fertilizer exports.

In the financial sector, sovereignty refers to a budget that relies on domestic taxes, an independent monetary policy, and a national currency that is not pegged to the euro. In the energy sector, it emphasizes boosting internal and regional consumption of energy resources while developing the necessary infrastructure for domestic markets. When it comes to food security, sovereignty means fostering local production, which requires investments in technology, irrigation, fertilizers, and the establishment of strategic reserves. In healthcare, it involves creating national systems for the certification of medications, monitoring their distribution, advancing medical research, and tracking outbreaks of dangerous diseases. In the realm of information and communication technology, it signifies autonomous control over data traffic and the security of the digital infrastructure. All these areas are critical for Russia-Africa cooperation, since a more sovereign Africa is by all means a better partner for Russia.

As we’ve said above, for developing nations, sovereignty also requires investments, which can be quite costly. To make informed decisions about such investments, in addition to having access to forums and knowledge-sharing platforms, Africa also needs to train management personnel committed to enhancing their nations’ sovereignty. In this regard, Russian methodologies, technologies, and management solutions can help. Russia holds an advantage over other external partners in Africa because it does not seek institutional control over decision-making mechanisms in Africa.

Meanwhile in Africa

Africa is becoming an increasingly important player in global politics. In 2023, 19 African leaders attended the BRICS summit in South Africa, and in 2024, Ethiopia and Egypt joined the organization. The first summit in the expanded format has recently concluded in Kazan.

Algeria may become a stakeholder in the BRICS New Development Bank and several other countries are set to receive invitations to participate in BRICS+ formats. Africa’s influence is also growing in other international organizations such as the UN, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF). While Europe struggles to reach consensus and Asia has never been fully unified, Africa is developing a new model of integration that not only preserves the sovereignty of its member states but also strengthens their positions on the global stage.

Africa’s primary advantage lies in its growing population and untapped natural resources. The continent’s population is approaching 1.5 billion, and this is just the beginning. Interior regions suitable for habitation and agriculture remain sparsely populated, and many coastal cities are experiencing annual growth rates of 5-7%. Issues like hunger, access to clean water, and healthcare can be solved thanks to urban and infrastructure development. Population growth could provide Africa with the population and infrastructure density necessary for sustainable development. Unlike former colonial powers and the West in general, Russia openly acknowledges its interest in the growth and prosperity of Africa’s population – the more people there are in Africa, the better for Russia.

Dispelling the fog of uncertainty

Forums are highly important events because they create a communication space built on trust and foster sustainable connections. The cross-verification and validation of partners that occurs at such meetings helps business interactions continue outside the formal forum setting. This is particularly true in Africa, where people consider face-to-face communication essential for establishing trusting relationships.

A defining characteristic of Africa is the fog of uncertainty surrounding it. This uncertainty forces risks to be overvalued, which in turn inflates the cost of capital. Consequently, financing rates for businesses in Africa are several times higher than for those in other developing countries, not to mention rates in the US or Europe. Investing in communication and information helps create an environment where businesses feel more secure.

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The role of expertise

Over the past five years, the level of Russian expertise and the general awareness of what is happening in Africa have significantly grown. In fact, Russia’s understanding of processes in Africa is becoming highly competitive.

At the upcoming First Ministerial Conference of the Russia–Africa Partnership Forum in Sochi on November 9, an expert analytical report titled ‘Africa 2025: Prospects and Challenges’ will be released. This report compiles insights from Russian experts regarding pressing issues in Africa – including climate change, population growth, the development of financial-industrial groups, digitalization, and sovereignty.

Historically, European and US narratives have dominated modern African studies, emphasizing themes such as population control, minority rights, and “less sovereignty”. The Russian study, prepared by the HSE Center for African Studies, targets both African and global audiences. It challenges existing stereotypes, introduces new data, and offers independent interpretations free from preconceived notions. Notably, demographic growth is examined in detail as a significant advantage and resource for Africa, while digitalization emerges as a natural and effective means of strengthening state institutions.

Interaction in the fields of culture and creative industries is also becoming more important – it is no longer considered a “supplementary agenda”, but emerges as a vital aspect of fostering mutual interest, understanding, and respect that allows to interpret each other’s cultural codes without resorting to a standardized approach.

In the past five years, Africa’s presence in the Russian information landscape has grown exponentially through various means, including Telegram channels, conferences, and literature. Books by African authors are being translated into Russian, African art is showcased in Russia, and prominent Russian artists are exhibiting their works in Africa.

Perhaps the only thing that is more important than cultural exchange is the strengthening of human ties, achieved through enhanced direct air travel and the further liberalization of visa regimes. For future collaboration to thrive, interaction needs to continue beyond forums – and in the next five years, we anticipate a significant surge not just in trade but also in tourism and business travel between Russia and Africa.