Trevor Lawrence was heating up before Week 9.
The Jacksonville Jaguars’ once and future franchise quarterback had begun to bounce back after a wretched start to his 2024 season. He’d been responsible for nearly 21 expected points added (EPA) between a blowout win over the New England Patriots and a narrow loss to the Green Bay Packers, playing like a top-five passer in that span.
Then, the wheels came off in Philadelphia. Lawrence completed barely more than half his passes in a 28-23 loss to the Eagles. He threw two interceptions. He suffered a left shoulder injury that could not only keep him out of Week 10’s matchup with the Minnesota Vikings but cost Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson his job.
As #Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence (left shoulder) continues to get treatment and weigh options for the future, sources say he’s considered unlikely to play Sunday vs the #Vikings.
Lawrence was limited in practice yesterday & coach Doug Pederson was noncommittal about his status. pic.twitter.com/9D4q5ogSe3
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) November 7, 2024
The Jaguars are 2-7 this season, tied for the worst record in the NFL. Pederson is 3-12 in his last 15 games. He badly needs to surge this winter to keep his job in Jacksonville. And the quarterback he’ll be relying on is this man:
That Jordan Love back foot pick across his body reminded me that this Mac Jones interception happened pic.twitter.com/wunyj11USA
— Indigo (@Indigo6553) January 21, 2024
Mac Jones will step into the breach for a Jags team that has spent the past 12 months unraveling. The same Mac Jones who got progressively worse for the New England Patriots over three increasingly frustrating seasons after being a 2021 first round draft pick. The same Mac Jones who threw 35 deep balls in 11 games last season and completed four of them.
Jones will, on paper, get more support than he did to end his Patriots tenure. Brian Thomas Jr. is only a rookie but already a more dynamic wide receiver than anyone New England offered the young QB in his three years there. Evan Engram is the actual version of the tight end the Patriots wanted Mike Gesicki to be in 2023. Tank Bigsby and Trevor Etienne are by no means consistent, but they’ve created a top 10 run game despite Jacksonville’s glaring issues elsewhere.
But Jones devolved in so many ways before leaving New England, where he was reduced to a malfunctioning quick-hit, first-read robot who led defenders to the ball and failed to create easy completions in a game plan designed for them. His average pass distance and time to throw decreased each season as a Patriot, in part because he had little room to operate behind a bad offensive line and in part because he wasn’t very good with these throws. His average throw distance of 6.9 yards downfield in 2023 was fifth-lowest among all starting quarterbacks. But his on-target throw rate for what ostensibly should be easier throws ranked 20th — well behind the four other QBs who threw similarly short passes.
Jones has only thrown nine garbage time passes as a Jaguar, so it’s tough to know what his gameplan will be. But he’s a quarterback who generally did not perform well under pressure as a Patriot. Now he faces the Vikings, a team that blitzes more than anyone else in the NFL (41 percent, per NFL Pro). That’s a rough scene!
In fairness, Jones is also an opportunity for Pederson. Matt LaFleur has only furthered his legend as an offensive mastermind by turning a discarded young quarterback into a winner in Green Bay. Malik Willis is 2-0 as a starter for the Packers and engineered the game-winning drive that led his team over Pederson’s in Week 8.
Asking “can Mac Jones be as good as Malik Willis?” somehow feels insulting to both players. Yet, that’s the puzzle Pederson needs to unlock. His job may be riding on it.
