The latest Des Moines Register poll showing skyrocketing enthusiasm for Vice President Harris among Iowa's independent women set off alarm bells for former President Trump and his allies, as both parties seek to rally their bases and drive turnout.
The poll, which was conducted by J. Ann Selzer, showed Harris with a narrow lead in the red-leaning state, largely driven by female voters. Harris leads Trump in Iowa by 28 points among independent women and by 35 points among women over 65 years old, the survey found.
While Democrats and Republicans say the chances of Harris outright winning Iowa are slim, Democrats say the enthusiasm among Hawkeye State women could be indicative of Harris’s support with women across the country.
“What the Iowa Poll showed us is that more independent women are showing up than independent men,” one Republican strategist said.
“No one knows who those nonpartisans are,” the strategist said, referring to independent swing voters. “This is a sign to me that those others are going to break for her in a drastic way, because most of those voters are women.”
Some point to the poll reflecting how the issue of reproductive rights is playing out with women in Iowa, where most abortions are banned after six weeks.
“What they’ve been experiencing is literally what is happening in Iowa, which is what happens when the Dobbs decision came into play,” said Debbie Walsh, the director of the Center for American Women in Politics at Rutgers University.
“That may be driving this," she added.
Still, many Republicans maintain that voters who say abortion access is their top priority are likely not going to be persuadable, and that truly persuadable voters will be looking at other issues as well, such as the economy.
“We always know that the economy is the primary issue,” Walsh said. “I think what we’re seeing is what happens when you take away someone’s right. A right they have come to believe is fundamental to them after 50 years.”
The strategy has worked for Democrats, who overperformed in most competitive states on the issue in 2022. Harris has sought to extend that, zeroing in on abortion access in the closing salvos of her own campaign.
The Des Moines Register polling comes as the election has been increasingly painted as a man versus woman election.
The idea of a voter gender gap is nothing new. In recent history, women have leaned more toward Democratic candidates, while men have tended to lean Republican. But some strategists point out the Trump campaign’s populist rhetoric has attracted more male voters, while Harris’s focus on abortion access has spiked enthusiasm among female voters.
“As long as the women can overperform for the Democratic candidate, in this case Harris, then it can trump the male vote,” Walsh said.
However, a PBS News/NPR/Marist poll released Monday found that the gender gap had significantly dwindled. Trump had previously led Harris among male voters 57 percent to 41 percent, but Monday's poll showed his lead narrowing to 51 percent to 47 percent. At the same time, Harris’s lead among women also decreased from 18 to 11 points.
The Trump campaign has pushed back on the Des Moines Register poll, calling it an “outlier.” Instead, the former president’s team has touted an Emerson College poll out of the state, showing Trump leading Harris by 10 points overall, 5 points among women and 7 points among independents.
In a memo responding to the Iowa Poll, the Trump campaign noted that in 2020, “Trump tied Biden 49-49 among women according to CNN exits.”
“The poll is an outlier for sure,” said Dan Eberhart, a Trump donor. “Iowa is a cheap date. If the Harris campaign even thought the race was close, they would have been spending profusely in the state.”
But other Republicans push back on the criticism of Selzer, saying the campaign should not outright dismiss the poll’s findings.
“She’s no joke; she’s the real deal. She wouldn’t put that out if she didn’t have confidence,” said the unnamed Republican strategist. “It’s not like one of those random polls you see on the internet.”
