The Republican and Democratic parties are both facing a crossroads in Tuesday’s election, which is likely to determine the direction each takes over the next few years.
If former President Trump defeats Vice President Harris, he would secure the transformation of the GOP from the protrade, proimmigration and globalist party that former President Reagan epitomized in the 1980s to the populist, protariff, anti-immigration and America First movement it is today.
If Harris wins, she would extend and expand upon the policies of the Biden-Harris administration and continue the Democratic Party’s shift toward appealing primarily to women, Black, Latino and college-educated voters.
Whichever party loses the White House — the biggest prize of Nov. 5 — and is relegated to the minority in one or both chambers of Congress will find itself in turmoil over where to go next, opening the door for internal critics to call for radical change.
“For both parties, this is a crossroads. We’ll have to see what rises out of the ashes of this election,” said Democratic strategist Tad Devine, who witnessed firsthand the soul-searching that consumed the Democratic Party after it lost the 1984 and 1988 presidential elections.
“It’s a tremendous opportunity for the Democratic Party. The opportunity would be to become the mainstream political party in America. I think that opportunity will present itself because the Trump faction of the Republican Party will no longer be in power at the executive level, and I think the people who emulate him in the congressional races and the local races, they’re going to be discredited,” he said. “The regulars within the Republican Party are going to say, ‘We’ve lost enough with this guy.’”
Republican strategists agree that if Trump loses it will spark a scramble for power in their party, opening the way for traditional establishment Republicans, such as Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) and his allies, to shift the party back in the direction of Reagan and former Presidents George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush.
“One would think that JD Vance would try to assume control over the Republican Party based on his vice presidential candidate stardom,” said Republican strategist Ron Bonjean, referring Ohio Sen. JD Vance, Trump's running mate.
But he predicted that Republican leaders in the establishment wing of the party would see Trump’s loss as an opportunity to move the party away from his populist views, especially on trade and foreign policy and national security.
“While Reagan and Bush conservatives are at a tipping point and there are much fewer of them these days, they’re going to fight over the heart and soul of the Republican Party if Trump’s gone,” he said.
“There will be a lot of soul-searching over who’s going to lead the party and what principles do they want to abide by,” he said of the aftermath of a Trump loss.
If Harris loses, it would embolden leading progressives such as Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) to argue that she didn’t push a bold enough agenda of taxing the rich, cracking down on corporate power and fossil fuel consumption and expanding the social safety net.
A Harris loss could also empower centrists to argue that party leaders need to tack to the center on some social and cultural issues while taking a stronger stance against illegal immigration.
“There’s going to be considerable disagreement about what the Harris candidacy meant. It’s not obvious that she’s had a uniformly liberal campaign. She hasn’t,” said Steven S. Smith, a political science professor at Washington University in St. Louis.
Smith said there will be “calls” for an overhaul of Democratic Party strategy and vision if Harris loses to Trump, but he argued Democrats are largely unified on policy, even if they may disagree on political strategy and what issues deserve the most emphasis.
“There’s going to be a great deal of disagreement about how to diagnose the loss. I think it’s unlikely that many Democrats will agree that they lost over policy. There’s hardly a policy that they enacted over the recent past that’s been unpopular,” he said.
Democrats have come under blame, in general, for high inflation since Biden took office four years ago, but few Democrats attribute the steep increase in prices to his policies, even though Republicans argue they are to blame.
The Biden administration has tried to tack to the center on border security and immigration, but strategists and policy experts don’t see Democrats ceding much more ground on the issue if they lose at the ballot box.
In Congress, Senate Republicans are facing a bruising internal debate over who should succeed McConnell as conference leader.
House Republicans may be heading into another round of infighting, as Rep. Mike Johnson (R-La.) wants to serve another term as Speaker but may face pushback from disgruntled conservatives. He hasn’t said what he would do if Republicans lose the majority, however.
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries (N.Y.) are secure in their jobs but may need to come up with strong arguments for why they shouldn’t share the blame for election losses.
Schumer has extolled the Biden administration’s record for the past two years as a strong political platform heading into 2024, but Democratic incumbents in battleground states have kept Biden at a distance.
Even Harris has kept away from Biden on the campaign trail, fearing his economic record and low approval numbers would hurt her.
Meanwhile, Johnson, who closely embraced Trump during his year in the Speakership, will almost certainly need to scramble to stay in House GOP leadership if Trump loses and takes the Republican majority down with him.
On the Senate side, McConnell allies such as Senate GOP Whip John Thune (S.D.) — who himself has clashed with Trump in the past — would likely emerge as the Republican Party’s strongest leaders in Washington if Trump loses.
But if Trump wins, Thune’s past friction with Trump could be a liability in the Nov. 13 leadership race against Sens. John Cornyn (Texas) and Rick Scott (Fla.), even though he has tried to mend fences with the former president.
