'Harbinger of doom' pollster says 'jaw-dropping' problem haunts Trump in Iowa
A pollster nicknamed the "harbinger of doom" for her history of calling elections correctly highlighted on Sunday a serious problem dogging former President Donald Trump in a typically Republican state.
Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer unpacked the startling news that Vice President Kamala Harris', the Democratic presidential nominee, has a strong lead in the pollster's conservative state with the Bulwark podcast host Tim Miller.
"I don't think anybody would look at the numbers and not be in, you know, a somewhat state of shock," said Selzer. "Nobody in their right mind would predict it."
Selzer and Miller discussed the widely respected Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll that shows Harris leading her opponent 47 percent to 44 percent.
Trump appeared to have a singular problem, according to Selzer, who said, "You need to win with women more than you lose with men."
Trump leads with Iowa men at 52 percent to 38 percent, which gives him a 14-point lead, but Harris has women voters at 56 percent to 36 percent, which represents a 20-point gap, Selzer said.
What's more, women voters over the age of 65, who typically vote Republican, have gone over to Harris' camp in a major way, Selzer said.
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With 63 percent for Harris and just 28 percent for Trump, that's a more than two-to-one ratio, Selzer said.
"They are strongly tilted toward Harris," Selzer said. "That's sort of a jaw dropping number."
Selzer suggested Iowa's strict new abortion law could be directing women voters away from Trump, who has taken credit for the Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe v. Wade.
Iowa's strict 6-week abortion ban went into effect in July — which Selzer argued women time to consider the consequences of their upcoming vote.
"There's something organic going on," she said, "because the presidential candidates certainly aren't spending any money or time here."