Nate Silver has written an interesting post giving 24 reasons why Trump could (not will) win. He is making the case it is not Kamala’s to lose, but hers to win, as so many factors favour Trump. His 24 are:
- Electoral College bias favours Republicans
- Inflation hit 9.1%
- Voters perceive the economy as poor
- Incumbents are doing badly globally
- Populism works, ie is popular
- Massive rise in in illegal immigration
- Harrius has not explained her flip flops from 2019
- Cultural vibes shift right as reaction against wokeness, crime, Covid-19 response
- Voters think economy was better under Trump
- Democrats have less dominance with racial and ethnic minorities
- Young men feel lost and shifting right
- Biden sought to be President until he was 86, neutering concerns over Trump’s age
- Harris inherited Biden’s campaign staff
- Undecideds may break against a female candidate
- Trust in media continues to fall which makes it hard for legitimate critiques of Trump to get through
- Trump is a con man, and is effective at convincing people he’s on their side
- Democrats are university elite who have poor instincts for public appeal
- Democrats rely too much on January 6, which was terrible, but ultimately not successful
- World has been more unstable in the last four years
- Israel-Hamas war has split the Democratic base
- More left leaning third party candidates than right leaning
- Elon Musk is campaigning for Trump
- The assassination attempts on Trump help him
- Harris is running on vibes, not a clear vision
An excellent and insightful list.
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