Despite ample confusion over crime statistics, a new national poll finds that most Americans believe crime has increased over the last few years. The poll also shows how fear of crime is changing the way Americans live.
According to the nonpartisan survey, 62 percent of Americans believe crime is now a bigger problem than it was a few years ago. Only 15 percent say it’s a smaller problem.
I conducted this poll from Sept. 24 to Oct. 6 for CrimeChannel.org, a new repository of survey research data on criminal justice issues funded by Evan F. Trestman Philanthropies. It was based on a representative national sample of 2,000 U.S. adults with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.19 percent.
The confusion over crime statistics has been sparked in part by the fact that there is more than one federal source of crime data. The FBI’s Uniform Crime Report reflects crimes reported to the police. The other source, the U.S. Census’s estimate of violent crime victimization (U.S. Census's estimate of violent crime victimization, includes both reported and unreported crimes. The former shows that, between 2022 and 2023, violent crime decreased by about 3 percent. The latter shows that the rate of violent crime victimization went up substantially, from 16.5 per 1,000 persons in 2021 to 22.5 per 1,000 persons in 2023.
Regardless, the poll finds that a strong majority of Americans (73 percent) say crime is affecting how they live their lives. This includes 81 percent of Hispanics, 80 percent of Blacks, 74 percent of women, 71 percent of men, and 69 percent of whites.
Overall, 86 percent of Americans say they’re now more careful than they were a few years ago about avoiding places that may not be safe. In addition, 75 percent say they’ve avoided taking trips to certain places with high crime rates, and 67 percent say they’re staying home more at night to avoid the risk of crime.
More than one-third of Americans polled say they have actually moved to a safer town or neighborhood because of these concerns — and of those who haven’t moved for that reason, an additional 18 percent say they have thought about doing so. This helps explain why a solid 73 percent of survey respondents perceive their local community as safe, although many of them had to pick up stakes to find that sense of safety.
In line with this, 70 percent of Americans say they worry about crime. Most troubled are residents of cities with populations above 50,000 (77 percent), 44- to 59-year-olds (76 percent) and Hispanics (74 percent). More Blacks than Whites say they worry about crime (72 percent vs. 68 percent). Worry is high among both Republicans (75 percent) and Democrats (70 percent).
Americans polled also admit to changing their views on criminal justice issues in recent years — a period marked by events that exposed weaknesses in the system. Notably, 81 percent say they now more strongly favor laws to punish police officers who abuse their power, usually seen as a center-left position. But, 66 percent say they now more strongly favor laws to keep criminals in prison longer, often seen as a center-right viewpoint.
It’s no wonder that 76 percent of likely voters in the poll say crime will be an important issue when they vote for president next week. Republicans are more likely than Democrats to say this, with fewer independents joining in.
As a public issue, the incidence of crime matters — and deeply so — both statistically and personally. The perception of crime matters, too, and Americans are changing how they live due to that perception.
Ron Faucheux, Ph.D., is a nonpartisan pollster, political analyst and writer who has taught at Georgetown University and George Washington University’s Graduate School of Political Management.
