MANILA, Philippines – Severe Tropical Storm Leon (Kong-rey) slowed down on Monday evening, October 28, “meandering” or wobbling over the Philippine Sea.

Leon was located 705 kilometers east of Echague, Isabela, as of 10 pm on Monday, slowly heading west after earlier moving at a speed of 15 kilometers per hour (km/h).

The severe tropical storm continues to have maximum sustained winds of 100 km/h and gustiness of up to 125 km/h.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) maintained in its 11 pm bulletin on Monday that Leon “is expected to rapidly intensify throughout its passage over the Philippine Sea,” and may strengthen into a typhoon within 12 hours, or by Tuesday morning, October 29.

“Furthermore, there is an increasing chance that Leon will reach super typhoon category during its period of closest approach to Batanes,” added PAGASA. This period may be on Thursday, October 31.

A typhoon has maximum sustained winds of 118 to 184 km/h, while a super typhoon has maximum sustained winds of 185 km/h or above.

There is still an “increasing possibility” of a further westward shift in Leon’s track, so the weather bureau is not ruling out landfall in Batanes, or a “close approach” to the province.

Leon’s trough or extension will continue to trigger rain in parts of Luzon and the Visayas, which may cause floods and landslides. Here is PAGASA’s latest rainfall outlook as of 11 pm on Monday:

Monday evening, October 28, to Tuesday evening, October 29

• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 millimeters): Cagayan including Babuyan Islands
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Batanes, Apayao, Ilocos Norte, Isabela, Calamian Islands, Occidental Mindoro, Negros Occidental, Antique

Tuesday evening, October 29, to Wednesday evening, October 30

• Intense to torrential rain (more than 200 mm): Batanes, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands
• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Ilocos Norte, Apayao, Occidental Mindoro, Antique
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Ilocos Sur, Isabela, Abra, Calamian Islands, Romblon, Negros Occidental, Aklan

Wednesday evening, October 30, to Thursday evening, October 31

• Intense to torrential rain (more than 200 mm): Batanes, Babuyan Islands
• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Calamian Islands, Occidental Mindoro
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Ilocos Norte, Zambales, Bataan, Cavite, Batangas, Romblon, Antique

Signal No. 1 remains in effect for these provinces, which will have strong winds from the severe tropical storm:

• Batanes
• Cagayan including Babuyan Islands
• Isabela
• Quirino
• Nueva Vizcaya
• Apayao
• Kalinga
• Abra
• Mountain Province
• Ifugao
• northern part of Benguet (Bakun, Kibungan, Atok, Bokod, Mankayan, Buguias, Kabayan)
• Ilocos Norte
• Ilocos Sur
• Aurora
• northern part of Quezon including Polillo Islands (General Nakar, Infanta, Real)
• Camarines Norte
• eastern part of Camarines Sur (Tinambac, Siruma, Goa, Lagonoy, San Jose, Garchitorena, Caramoan, Presentacion, Tigaon, Calabanga, Saglay)
• Catanduanes
• eastern part of Albay (Rapu-Rapu, Bacacay, Tabaco City, Tiwi, Malilipot, Malinao, Santo Domingo, Manito)
• northeastern part of Sorsogon (Prieto Diaz, Sorsogon City, Gubat)
• eastern part of Northern Samar (San Roque, Pambujan, Catubig, Laoang, Palapag, Gamay, Lapinig, Mapanas, Mondragon)
• northern part of Eastern Samar (Jipapad, Arteche, Oras, San Policarpo)

The highest possible tropical cyclone wind signal due to Leon is either Signal No. 3 or 4, “especially in extreme Northern Luzon.” But PAGASA is not ruling out the raising of Signal No. 5 if Leon reaches super typhoon status.

“The wind flow coming towards the circulation” of the severe tropical storm is bringing strong to gale-force gusts to localities outside wind signal areas, too:

Tuesday, October 29

• Zambales, Bataan, Aurora, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Mimaropa, Bicol, Visayas, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, Camiguin

Wednesday, October 30

• Zambales, Bataan, Aurora, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Mimaropa, Bicol, most of Central Luzon, most of Visayas, Dinagat Islands

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For coastal waters on Tuesday,

Up to high seas (travel is risky for all vessels)

• Seaboards of Batanes and Babuyan Islands; northeastern seaboard of mainland Cagayan – waves up to 6 meters high

Up to very rough seas (travel is risky for all vessels)

• Remaining seaboard of mainland Cagayan; eastern seaboard of Isabela – waves up to 5 meters high

Up to rough seas (small vessels should not venture out to sea)

• Northern and eastern seaboards of Catanduanes; northern seaboard of Ilocos Norte – waves up to 4 meters high
• Northern and eastern seaboards of Polillo Islands; northern seaboards of Camarines Norte and Camarines Sur – waves up to 3.5 meters high
• Seaboard of Aurora; eastern seaboards of Albay and Sorsogon; northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Samar; remaining seaboard of Ilocos Norte – waves up to 3 meters high

Up to moderate seas (small vessels should take precautionary measures or avoid sailing, if possible)

• Seaboard of Ilocos Sur; eastern seaboard of mainland Quezon, Camarines Sur, Eastern Samar, and Dinagat Islands – waves up to 2.5 meters high
• Remaining seaboards of the country – waves up to 2 meters high

After its potential landfall or close approach to Batanes, Leon could make landfall in the eastern coast of Taiwan on Thursday afternoon or evening. Taiwan is within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

Afterwards, Leon is expected to cross Taiwan, then turn north toward the East China Sea and leave PAR on Friday morning or afternoon, November 1.

Leon is the Philippines’ 12th tropical cyclone for 2024, and the second for October. – Rappler.com