A political analyst highlighted Monday a “turning point” in the 2024 election that’s seeing a surprising demographic shift strongly to Donald Trump.
Writing in the New York Times, John Della Volpe — the director of polling at the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics — described seeing young men flock to the GOP presidential candidate’s campaign.
It’s the result of a dedicated effort to win young males over to the MAGA movement, he wrote.
“If effective, his effort could peel enough away from the Democratic Party to transform the country’s electoral math for years to come,” he wrote.
He said his research has shown an, “Increasing political rift between young men and women under 30, two groups critical to Democrats’ success in recent elections.
“Almost exactly equal shares of young men and young women say they will definitely vote in this election or have already done so. But since the spring of 2020, the share of young men identifying as registered Democrats has dropped by seven percentage points, while those identifying as Republicans have increased by seven points.”
He gave the example of a male bartender he met in Pittsburgh who said rising costs and lack of affordable housing had left him despairing about the future — and reacting positively to Trump. He said three-quarters of young men say they have the same worries.
“Mr. Trump has tapped these anxieties by weaving a hypermasculine message of strength and defiance into his broader narrative that undermines confidence in democratic institutions — and it’s working,” he wrote.
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“Aware that boasting about “killing” Roe v. Wade drove away young women, Mr. Trump zeroed in on capturing a larger share of the young male vote.”
He added, “His playbook? A master class in bro-whispering: championing crypto, securing the endorsement of Dave Portnoy — the unapologetically offensive founder of Barstool Sports — and giving U.F.C. President Dana White, who embodies the alpha-male archetype that appeals to many young men, a prime spot at the Republican National Convention.”
Volpe said the demographic's swing towards Trump has long been planned, with tens of millions of dollars committed to it.
“Is this rightward drift among young men simply a short-lived, Trump-inspired episode or a more permanent transformation?” he asked.
“The answer lies partly in Ms. Harris’s ability to connect with and motivate young voters as the campaign nears its end.”
